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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30
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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30

Bitcoin Rally May Not Have Hit Top Yet, Here’s Why

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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The historical pattern in this Bitcoin on-chain indicator may suggest that the ongoing rally hasn’t reached its top yet.

Bitcoin 1-Year Inactive Supply Has Continued To Go Up Recently

According to a post from the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the 1-year inactive supply hit a high back in March of this year. The “1-year inactive supply” is an indicator that measures the total percentage of the Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved on the blockchain since at least one year ago.

This supply belongs to one of the two major cohorts in the BTC market: the “long-term holders” (LTHs). This group includes all investors who bought their coins more than six months ago, so the 1-year inactive supply metric doesn’t measure their entire supply, only a segment of it (although a rather large one).

The LTHs hold a special place in the Bitcoin economy as they comprise the most resolute investors in the market. The selling and buying behavior of this cohort can, therefore, have long-term implications for the sector.

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Here is a chart that shows how the 1-year inactive BTC supply has changed over the lifetime of the cryptocurrency and how it has seemingly taken its place in the different price cycles:

Bitcoin 1-Year Inactive Supply

Looks like the value of the metric has been on the rise in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As the above graph shows, the Bitcoin 1-year inactive supply has historically trended up during the bear markets. This means these investors generally participate in accumulation in the leadup to and during the bear markets.

The LTHs then continue to hold onto their filled-up bags and expand as they transition toward a bullish period. These investors show this behavior throughout the bull market buildup phase; when the rally starts reaching its last stages, these holders start selling to take their profits.

This pattern has repeated throughout the different cycles, showing that the LTHs’ behavior hasn’t changed too much. However, one thing that differs between the cycles is that their supply has been going up overall. This would partly be attributed to all the Bitcoin that has been getting lost due to wallet keys becoming inaccessible.

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$24,400 May Be Next Major Level Of Support For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

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The percentage of the circulating supply held by this Bitcoin investor segment hit an all-time high just back in March of this year, reaching a value north of 67%. These investors have shed some coins since then, but the difference in their supplies between then and now is negligible (13.1 million BTC vs. 13 million BTC).

The April 2019 rally, which resembles the current one, also saw the LTHs holding tight until midway through the rally, when they started selling, and the cryptocurrency reached the top just a while later.

Suppose the Bitcoin price and the 1-year inactive supply will follow the same pattern in this current rally as during all these past bullish periods. In that case, it seems likely that the top hasn’t been hit since the LTHs haven’t started participating in any significant distribution yet.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,300, down 4% in the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC has gone stale in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

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Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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