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Breaking News: FTX Recovery Trust Set To Disburse $1.6 Billion By Month-End, FTT Price Skyrockets
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Breaking News: FTX Recovery Trust Set To Disburse $1.6 Billion By Month-End, FTT Price Skyrockets

Bitcoin Repeating This Price Pattern Of Late 2019? Watch This

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin

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As a result of the lawsuit filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance, the Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a high level of uncertainty. After yesterday’s 5% crash within an hour, the BTC price is currently struggling to make it past the $27,000 mark, yet Bitcoin is up 63% year-to-date.

BTC Repeating The Price Action Of Late 2019?

Analyst @tedtalksmacro sees many parallels in the current price trend and macroeconomic environment to the period from September to November 2019, when the Bitcoin price consolidated between $10,500 and $6,500. “Just like every other Bitcoin cycle, the current one has its nuances,” notes Ted, who sees the first similarity in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy.

In 2019, the Fed made three rate cuts by October. It also began expanding its balance sheet in September. The scenario is somewhat similar to today’s.

Currently, the Fed has already begun balance sheet expansion – according to the prevailing opinion of experts – with its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and expanded swaps with five other central banks. Even though the Fed’s dot plot does not include any rate cuts in 2023, the market is calling it a bluff and is pricing in rate cuts of 100 basis points by the end of the year.

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1 year ago

Bitcoin price trends are also similar. In 2019, the price had hit a bottom after moving 83% away from the all-time high (ATH). This was around 500 days before the next halving in 2020.

In 2023, the price bottomed after moving down 78% from its ATH. Like clockwork, the BTC price again found its bottom around 500 days before the 2024 halving.

“Consistencies between cycles are new ATHs, echo bubbles, bear markets and consolidation phases; each time these phases play out slightly differently for reasons other than price,” explained Ted, who shared the chart below.

Bitcoin chart pattern 2019 2023
Bitcoin price similarities late 2019 and now | Source: Twitter @tedtalksmacro

Further, the analyst notes on the chart that the 2021/22 echo bubble was more intense due to the FTX collapse and therefore outperformed the 2018 echo bubble by a multiple. In addition, Ted speculates that the COVID black swan price action should not repeat this cycle unless another black swan, such as a third world war, occurs. In conclusion, he states:

If you’re betting on new lows from here, it’s becoming clear that you’re betting on this time being different (I’ll never speak in absolutes, but betting against history typically doesn’t work out well).

Similarities To 2020’s Bitcoin FUD

Renowned analyst Andrew Kang takes a similar view. In a recent tweet, he drew attention to the current similarities to the year 2020. The year 2020 was marked by numerous regulatory FUD history surrounding Bitcoin.

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In October 2020, the CFTC opened its case against BitMEX and its founders. A short time later, the Chinese government attacked OkEX and Huobi. After a quick recovery, markets faced a barrage of regulatory FUD from US and Chinese regulators, as Kang notes.

Bitcoin price 2020 vs 2023
Bitcoin FUD in 2020 | Source: Twitter @Rewkang

The US government went after Arthur Hayes and Bitmex. The Chinese government went after OKX and Huobi executives. Markets could not break below $10k and climbed the wall of worry. “Markets could not break below $10k & climbed the wall of worry,” says Kang, who also wrote recently:

Global crisis, markets panicked, months of long positioning flushed out, only truly convicted holders remain, sellers in disbelief and traders ready to fade all rallies. Same playbook, just 3 years later.

At press time, the Bitcoin price was at $26,895, still struggling to shrug off the Binance news.

Bitcoin BTC price
Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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