Bitcoin Shows Parallels With 2017 Cycle, Here’s What Can Happen Next

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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A quant has pointed out parallels between the current and the 2017 Bitcoin cycles, something that may contain hints about what’s next for the asset.

The Current Bitcoin Cycle Has Shown Interesting Parallels With The 2017 Cycle

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, there have been five interesting recent events in the current cycle that are similar to what was seen in the 2017 cycle.

The 2017 cycle hit its top in December of that year, while the current cycle hit its top back in November of 2021. The entirety of these cycles isn’t relevant in the context of the current discussion; only the bearish trends that followed after their respective highs were attained.

The below chart shows the trend in the percentage drawdowns that were seen following the tops in the 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin cycles:

The bear markets of the 2017 and 2021 cycles compared | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the graph, the quant has marked some of the relevant portions of the cycles that were similar between them. In both of these cycles, the price first observed a bear market phase where the asset endlessly consolidated. In the case of the 2017 cycle, the sideways movement was around the $6,000 level, while for 2021, it was about the $20,000 mark.

Both these consolidation periods ended with the price seeing a sharp plunge. Assuming that the lows after the FTX crash back in November 2022 were the worst this bear market is going to get, then the similar sharp plunges in these cycles also lead to bear bottoms for both of them.

After these lows, the price again took to sideways movement in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. In the 2017 cycle, the price followed up this period with sharp bullish momentum in the form of the April 2019 rally. The current cycle also seems to be showing something similar in the form of the rally that started earlier this year.

Bitcoin hit a roadblock midway through the April 2019 rally and slumped into a sideways consolidation phase again. The quant believes that this is the phase the current cycle is in right now, as BTC’s price action has been quite stale recently.

The X-axis of the graph shows the number of days since the top that these events took place in these cycles. It’s interesting how close the cycles have seemingly been in not just the structure, but also the timing of the events.

If the parallels between these two Bitcoin cycles will continue to hold in the future, then the current sideways trend may be followed by a sharp rise in the price, as the April 2019 rally also followed up its sideways phase with a strong uptrend.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,300, up 1% in the last week.

BTC has continued to move sideways in recent days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from André François McKenzie on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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