Bitcoin Strengthens Vs. Gold, Analyst Sees ‘Higher Than Expected’ Returns

Christian Encila

4 weeks ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin’s price may surge above $200,000 next year, according to recent analysis by X account Apsk32. He warns that the familiar four‑year cycle for BTC often lines up with fresh highs. Short swings have hit traders hard before. This time, bulls say Bitcoin could even top $250,000 in 2025.

Bitcoin Gold Link

According to Apsk32, Bitcoin often trails gold by a few months. Gold hit a record $3,500 per ounce earlier this year. If Bitcoin follows that path, it could surge. He measures Bitcoin’s market value in ounces of gold instead of dollars. That way, money printing and inflation don’t skew the view.

BTC power curve chart. Source: Apsk32 via X

Power Curve Model

Apsk32 uses what he calls a “power curve” tool. It fits Bitcoin’s market cap in gold ounces to a smooth curve. The tool stretches back to the 2017 high near $20,000. When plotted, it suggests a 2025 bull‑market peak above $200,000. He told X followers that “if Bitcoin’s position relative to gold keeps improving, returns could top expectations.”

Bitcoin’s position relative to gold has improved considerably since April. This is the indicator that gives me hope for higher than expected returns later this year.

BTC-USD is close to extreme greed, which sounds scary, but it’s also where we would expect to be if Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/CY1Qxy4Hdi

— apsk32 (@apsk32) May 16, 2025

Realistic Price Targets

While some models push for $444,000 this year—what Apsk32 credits to “five years ahead of support”—he thinks a more realistic goal is $220,000. He added there’s a “decent chance” BTC hits $250,000, but he doesn’t see that as the most likely outcome. The $220,000 level would still mark a 10× jump from Bitcoin’s low near $22,000 in late 2022.

Gold Market Scenarios

Other market experts ran a different test. They looked at how much Bitcoin could be worth if it claimed part of gold’s total value. If gold reaches, say, $5,000 per ounce by 2030 and Bitcoin grabs half of gold’s market cap, BTC could hit a price of more than $920k. But then, these figures are scenario‑based, not firm predictions.

BTC is now trading at $104,064. Chart: TradingView

Supply And Demand Factors

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins. Every block halving makes new BTC rarer. These events come roughly every four years. The next one is expected in 2024. After that, miner rewards fall from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Scarcity has driven prices up in past cycles. But demand could shift if big investors pull back.

Risks And Opportunities

Volatility in both gold and Bitcoin could upend these models. Gold can face sudden drops when traders take profits. Bitcoin has swung 20% or more in a single day before. Regulatory moves, geo‑political events, and tech upgrades all play a part. Still, setting clear price scenarios helps investors plan.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Christian Encila

They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that's not just a metaphor, it's a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian's journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling - right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he's one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian's all work and no play? Not a chance! When he's not at his computer, you'll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian's got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here's the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day - and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors - and bosses - he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.