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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bitcoin Volatility Reaches Low Set Ahead Of April 2019 Rally, Will History Repeat?

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin crypto major altcoins

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Bitcoin has been uncharacteristically stagnant for over two full months now. The trading range has been tightening, which has led to record low levels of volatility in the otherwise volatile asset.

But the low volatility taking place currently has reached a level that kicked off an explosive uptrend in April 2019. Will the leading cryptocurrency by market cap experience another parabolic move similar to the last time around?

What Happened to Cryptocurrency’s Signature Volatility?

The cryptocurrency asset class is historically known for its wild price swings and explosive volatility. This is the primary reason new investors are offered the advice to never invest more than they can comfortably afford to lose.

Incredible returns are possible, but so is the chance that all of your investment capital gets wiped out. That’s what many crypto investors learned the hard way buying into the peak 2017 media frenzy.

After Bitcoin’s meteoric rise from $200 to $20,000, the asset then fell back to $3,200. An over 80% drawdown was enough to deal a critical blow to anyone who bought in just ahead of the bubble bursting.

Related Reading | This Unusual Factor Could Reignite Crypto’s Notorious Volatility

But just as powerful as drawdowns are, so are Bitcoin’s rallies. In April 2019, after spending months consolidating around the current bear market bottom, an explosive breakout occurred.

Bitcoin has once again been consolidating for months and has fallen to a low level of volatility that hasn’t been reached since that April 2019 pump. The rally resulted in an over 300% climb from $3,200 to $14,000.

With volatility at such low levels and after months of sideways trading, will Bitcoin see a repeat and a powerful parabolic breakout once the range ends?

bitcoin low volatility

Source: Arcane Research

Bitcoin Drops To Volatility Low That Triggered Last Bullish Impulse in April 2019

According to data from Arcane Research, Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility has now fallen to 1.82%. The last time the asset had such a lapse in its signature volatility, a massive breakout occurred with a $1,000 hour-long price candle.

The April 2019 breakout kickstarted three months of an uptrend, that took the asset from $3,200 to $14,000.

The crypto market went wild with speculation, with analysis pointing to a single actor strategically placing buy orders across three crypto exchanges. Others claimed it was algrothjm-based trading bots picking up on fake April Fools day news about a Bitcoin pump, and responding with orders.

Related Reading | This Volatility Measuring Tool Is Signaling One of Bitcoin’s Biggest Moves Yet

Whatever the reason, Bitcoin paused its bear market for a massive rally.

The breakout came after the cryptocurrency fell to current volatility lows, and after nearly 100 days of consolidation. Bitcoin has reached the same level in terms of volatility but hasn’t been consolidating quite as long.

Price action from the last bull market breakout suggests that the tight trading range may continue for the foreseeable future, unfortunately. Unless revisiting the current low in volatility triggers yet another parabolic bull run.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

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