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On CNBC’s Fast Money, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes reaffirmed his stance on the price of bitcoin stabilizing in the $5,000 region before initiating the next rally.
Is a 30% Drop Imminent?
On July 1, Hayes appeared on CNBC’s Fast Money and discussed the price trend of bitcoin and the extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency amidst the third worst correction in the industry’s history.
At the time, Hayes stated that the price of bitcoin will likely bottom in the range of $3,000 to $5,000, but still achieve $50,000 by the end of 2018. He emphasized that a key regulatory change by the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) or other leading markets such as Japan and South Korea could trigger the market to surge upwards in a short period of time.
The approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which has been the focal point of bitcoin price predictions as of late by various experts and large retail traders, could play a vital role in building a robust infrastructure for bitcoin to depend on throughout its climb to $20,000.
“Absolutely [I stand by $50,000 prediction by 2018]. I think something [bitcoin] that goes up to $20,000 in one year can have a correction down to $6,000. I think we can find a bottom in the $3,000 to $5,000 range, but we are one positive regulatory decision away, maybe an ETF approved by the SEC, to climbing through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of 2018,” Hayes said.
Still, despite his firm belief in the price of bitcoin achieving a new all-time high at $50,000 by the fourth quarter of this year, Hayes said that the price of bitcoin will need to stabilize somewhere in the $5,000 region to obtain a strong support level and initiate a mid-term rally.
Since April, bitcoin has been able to secure corrective rallies with some momentum, but struggled surpass major resistance levels at $8,000, $10,000 and $12,000. Bitcoin attempted to breach the $10,000 resistance level twice in the past three months, but failed to secure momentum over the $10,000 mark, and falling below $6,000 thereafter.
Hayes explained:
“I don’t actually think we’ve seen the worst. I would like to see us test $5,000 to really see if we put a bottom in. But come back in Q3, Q4, I think is when the party is going to start again.”
Bubble-Crash-Build-Rally
Since 2010, the cryptocurrency sector has experienced a pattern of bubble-crash-build-rally, as Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan has said in TechCrunch: Sessions Zug, Switzerland.
The cryptocurrency market and major digital assets within it reach a new all-time high, create a bubble, crashes significantly by 70 to 80 percent, developers build strong infrastructure to handle increasing demand, and market recovers again.
Hayes and other large investors such as billionaire hedge fund investor Mike Novogratz and Peter Thiel expect a similar run in the latter half of the year.
