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Home Cryptocurrency news Bitcoin

Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin MACD Histogram More Extended Than During Previous Bull Cycle

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
2 years ago
in Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency news
Reading Time: 2min read
Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin MACD Being Overextended is Bullish, But Consolidation is Due
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The last crypto bull run brought Bitcoin into the lime light and public eye, and took the price of the digital asset skyrocketing to its all-time high price of $20,000.

Yet somehow, the current Bitcoin rally has caused the MACD histogram to become extended more so than any time during the previous bear and bull cycle, even during Bitcoin’s much publicized ascent during December 2017 – prior to the hype bubble pop that led to an over 85% correction.

Bitcoin MACD Histogram Demonstrates Power of Bulls

Following the early April rally that propelled the price of Bitcoin upward nearly $1,000 in an hour above resistance at $4,200, the cryptocurrency has once again gone parabolic, and has even reclaimed the $6,000 price level – a price level much of the market believed would prove to be seemingly unbreakable resistance. The same price level served as support throughout most of 2018 before Bitcoin fell through it in November to its eventual bear market bottom.

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Related Reading | Bullish: Crypto Community In Shock Over Recent Bitcoin Price Resilience

But now that most of the crypto market has concluded that the bottom is “in” for Bitcoin, investors and traders are finally starting to shed their disbelief and thus, bullish momentum has only increased despite the leading cryptocurrency by market cap being well overdue for a pullback or at least health consolidation.

The bullish momentum can clearly be seen in charts depicting Bitcoin’s long-term MACD, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator – an important trend change indicator used by crypto analysts to detect shifts in momentum.

Histogram [MACD extension above the smoothed out signal line] is currently more extended than anytime in the previous cycle…. pic.twitter.com/sI80jY8zqa

— dave the wave (@davthewave) May 9, 2019

As prominent long-term chartist Dave the Wave points out, the MACD histogram has reached a point of being more extended than any other point during the last bear and bull market cycle, including the parabolic run in December 2017, where Bitcoin spiked from $10,000 to $20,000.

Consolidation Expected, Or Will The Rally Retrace When Parabola Breaks?

The trader concludes that “consolidation is looming” but has been saying that for weeks now, and is close to abandoning his model as incorrect. He further concludes that either his analysis is either incorrect, or that the current parabola will also be broken much like the December 2017 blow-off top.

Parabola it is.

One way or the other, this will end in tears – on the inevitable coming back down to earth… or the demise of my model.? pic.twitter.com/4eeBf8F8eY

— dave the wave (@davthewave) May 9, 2019

Parabolic breaks, as Peter Brandt has pointed out and successfully used to base price predictions on, typically result in an over 85% decline in the asset that saw the parabolic advance. Bitcoin corrected precisely that during the bear market, bringing the price of the cryptocurrency to $3,150.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Has Gained On Average 77% Post-Consensus, Altcoins 161%

While an 85% correction from here is incredibly unlikely, a short pullback and retest of support turned resistance would bring additional confidence to the crypto market, and reignite the next bull run.

Featured image from Shutterstock
Tags: bitcoincrypto analystDave the WaveMACDMoving average convergence divergencetechnical analysis
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a digital media executive and global remote work leader with a decade of content experience and excellent. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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