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Joao Wedson, popular market analyst and founder of analytics platform Alphractal, has shared a cautionary insight on the Bitcoin market involving potential developments with the Binance exchange reserves.
Binance BTC Reserves In Danger – Possible Deep Bear Market?
The Bitcoin market has remained in a bear phase for the last six months, marked by geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties. During this time, the premier cryptocurrency has struggled to establish any sustained uptrend while constantly absorbing waves of corrective price action. In the most recent wave, Bitcoin prices returned to around $65,000, resulting in a net loss of 5.14% in the last seven days. Since then, the market has experienced a small range consolidation and presently trades around $66,000.
The Binance Reserve Realized Price sits at ~$60,490.
This is the average cost basis of Binance's entire BTC reserve.
Below this level, the majority of that reserve goes underwater.
It happened before in 2022. The reserve stayed in the red for months during the bear market.
But… pic.twitter.com/z6KsQMoQZe— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 28, 2026
According to Joao Wedson, this recent decline brings Bitcoin closer to a key support level, i.e., Binance Reserve Realized Price, which represents the average cost basis of BTC coins held on the exchange. Notably, this metric presently stands at $60,490, which is a mere 9% from present price levels. A drop below this threshold would push a significant portion of Binance-held supply into unrealized losses, potentially weakening market sentiment and increasing the risk of sell pressure, especially given Binance’s position as the world’s largest crypto exchange.
Wedson notes the postulated situation had occurred in the 2022 bear market, during which the exchange’s reserve held unrealized losses for months. General historical trend recognizes Binance Reserve Realized price as a key support level, loss of which would expose the bear market to lower price levels and deepen broader losses. In this case, the initial support target is at $54,000, which represents the general realized price level. However, significant chances of lower levels remain as Bitcoin has previously experienced bear market corrections ranging between 70%-80% from the cycle peak. For context, present levels are only 52% away from the current all-time high at $126,100.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,681, posting a modest 1.01% gain over the past 24 hours, though still down 1.2% on the monthly timeframe. Looking ahead, Coincodex analysts’ projections point to a potential upside, with forecasts placing BTC at $74,187 within the next five days and around $72,426 over the next one. If realized, this would signal renewed bullish momentum and a possible shift in market sentiment.
