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Breaking News: Trump Prepares To Allow Crypto Investments In $9 Trillion Retirement Market

How To Trade Bitcoin Ahead Of Tomorrow’s CPI Release? Analysts Weigh In

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
CPI Bitcoin price

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The Bitcoin price has risen above $30,000 for the first time since June 2022, continuing the uptrend that began earlier this year. After the price last struggled with resistance at $28,600 on the 1-day chart for over three weeks, the explosive breakout occurred yesterday while both traditional markets and gold remained flat.

However, as Bitcoinist reported in this week’s macro preview, tomorrow will be the most important day of the week, if not the month – and could set the tone for the next few weeks. Wednesday, April 12, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be released at 8:30 am EST.

A few hours later, at 2:00 pm EST, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will become public. The minutes could reveal more details about the Fed’s projections and considerations for its latest interest rate decision in March.

Both events are likely to cause heightened volatility and could be trend-setting for the Bitcoin price.

How To Trade Bitcoin Ahead Of CPI?

Analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) stated in a series of tweets that pre-release is probably a good time to think about de-risking. Still, he believes that the “true resistance is somewhere around $34k.” He reasons that traders are likely to pause on risk before the event.

In general, the CPI release creates the risk that a hot print could force a market-wide revaluation. In addition, new information or wording from the FOMC minutes could influence the market heavily.

“Overall an environment that is conducive to buying the dip, but don’t get caught over extended into the highs,” warns Ted, who also published an analysis on the Cleveland Fed’s prediction for tomorrow’s CPI inflation numbers.

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The CPI prediction is for +5.22% on a year-over-year basis (YoY). In February, the figure was +5.99% for the headline number. For core inflation, the prediction is for +5.66% YoY (previously +5.53%). In general, Ted notes:

Headline projected to come down significantly versus prior, but core to remain elevated (Fed prefers core). Elevated core inflation will likely translate to speculation on another 25 bps hike in May.

According to the analyst, chances are good that actual CPI numbers will at least meet the Cleveland Fed’s expectations. Since April 2022, actual data have been at or below the Cleveland Fed’s prediction 73% of the time.

In addition, since September 2022, the Cleveland Fed has overestimated the core inflation index 100% of the time. “On this event forcing higher prices for risk assets; I’d think that the market wants to see core print lower than consensus and ideally, lower than the previous month (+5.53%),” Ted concludes.

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However, there are also warning signs that tomorrow’s CPI print could be hotter than expected. Risk assets like Bitcoin could be hit the hardest. Holger Zschaepitz, author and economic journalist, wrote via Twitter today:

Hedge Funds boost S&P shorts to decade high before CPI, earnings. Net short positions at levels not seen since 2011. Goldman’s clients cut tech longs at fastest pace in 15 months.

bears reload on equity shorts - ho will Bitcoin react?
Bears reload on equity shorts | Source: Twitter @Schuldensuehner

Michaël van de Poppe, technical analyst and founder of Eight Global predicts: “Probably consolidation is next, before we’ll see CPI tomorrow, which can make/break the momentum. Trend remains up for Bitcoin.”

At press time, the Bitcoin price was at $30,126, hovering around the $30,000 mark.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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