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Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of a prolonged decline after peaking in October 2025. Historical patterns highlighted by a crypto analyst suggest that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has not yet reached its macro bear market bottom, despite recent major declines. Analysis of historical patterns from past cycles suggests the current market crash may persist for many more months, and the analyst urges investors and traders to adjust their expectations accordingly.
Bitcoin Historical Correlation Points To Further Crash
Crypto market expert Greeny shared a new technical analysis on X, noting that Bitcoin has consistently followed a pattern of peaks and bottoms across every major cycle over the past decade. Historical data from the analyst’s chart shows that from 2013 to 2015, Bitcoin took roughly 410 days to reach a low.
Similarly, the 2017 to 2018 cycle lasted about 363 days, while the decline from the 2021 peak extended around 376 days. The average across these three cycles is approximately 383 days, roughly over a year. In this cycle, the analyst notes that the market is about five months past its October peak, suggesting that the current downtrend is far from over.
Greeny has also noted that historical drawdowns during past cycles have been severe. In 2011, Bitcoin crashed by a whopping 93% before hitting a bottom. Later in 2015, the cryptocurrency fell from its peak, marking an 85% slump, while it dropped by 77% again in 2022 following the 2021 bull market rally.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently trading 42% below its all-time high of over $126,000 in this cycle, further reinforcing his belief that the market still has significant room for more losses. While Greeny acknowledged that institutional demand may prevent a crash as deep as previous cycles, he believes the timing of this bear market’s bottom is consistent with historical trends.
Beyond bear market durations and crash depths, Greeny also highlighted Bitcoin’s post-decline accumulation phases for each cycle. He noted that in 2015, Bitcoin spent 15 months trading sideways before a new uptrend emerged. Similarly, both 2018 and 2022 saw roughly 18 months of choppy trading before a market shift occurred.
Greeny strongly believes that the current market cycle is mirroring historical patterns. He expects the ongoing market crash to continue, with a meaningful accumulation phase still a long time off. This further supports the view that Bitcoin remains in the early stages of its bear market.
What To Expect In The Current Market Cycle
Greeny suggested that the average macro bear market bottom has historically appeared around 363 days after its cycle peak, placing a potential bottom near late 2026 or beyond. He explained that while Bitcoin has already started its price dump, its broader weakness is still ongoing.
The analyst warned that traders hoping for a quick “V-recovery” may be disappointed, as such rebounds have never occurred in Bitcoin’s history. He added that after BTC reaches a price floor, its accumulation phase is expected to last 12 to 16 months before any trend shift is confirmed. Greeny noted that the recent sharp drop in February may slightly shorten this phase, but a full trend shift is unlikely before 2027.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
