Not The 2018 Bear Market, Bitcoin Price Could Hit $20,000 In December

Reynaldo Marquez

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:28 pm

2 mins read

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The Bitcoin price rebounded off the low of its current range and retraced its weekend losses. The cryptocurrency might climb back to the previously lost territory, but uncertainty is king in the current market conditions.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $16,400. In the last 24 hours and last week, the price recorded a 2% and 4% profit, respectively. Other cryptocurrencies in the crypto top 10 are following, but Binance Coin (BNB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are leading the bounce.

Bitcoin price BTC BTCUSDT — BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: **BTCUSDT Tradingview**

The High And Lows, Is There Hope For The Bitcoin Price?

Investment firm Cumberland posted a market update highlighting the uncertainty in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The nascent asset class is trading in a range after experiencing massive sell pressure amid the collapse of FTX.

In this uncertain and low liquidity environment, with FTX and its market maker Alameda Research out of the picture, the Bitcoin price will likely trade sideways. During the holiday season, the crypto market will see another decline in liquidity, leading to volatility and crab-like price action.

However, Cumberland believes there are catalysts to see a move into fresh lows. The FTX collapse triggered a contagion effect across the industry. Many companies and projects relied on the crypto exchange and its venture arm.

Thus, these companies are vulnerable and might be unable to continue operations. The market is already seeing this effect with BlockFi’s chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Many wonder how many companies will take a similar measure in the coming weeks.

If many more crypto projects halt operations, the crypto market might see fresh lows before 2022 ends. Cumberland said the following on the state of “crypto lending 1.0”:

Version 1.0 of the centralized lending industry is effectively finished, and as a result there will be widespread collateral liquidations administered by bankruptcy attorneys over the coming months and years.

Max Pain Price Might Play In Favor Of Bitcoin?

On the other hand, the bullish case for the Bitcoin price is seeing some momentum on the back of adoption. Ironically, the collapse of FTX is driving many users to take custody of their assets and become less dependent on third-party services.

In addition, Cumberland sees an enduring bullish trend for stablecoin-based use cases, non-fungible token (NFT) technology, and Ethereum/Polygon as the foundation for Web2 businesses. The firm added:

Against this backdrop, volumes remain explosive; this is not the bear market of 2018 when activity evaporated altogether. Instead, it is evident from our perspective as liquidity providers that the number of entities who care (and transact) is steadily on the rise.

Cumberland believes regulations might drive momentum to either side. If the regulatory landscape for 2023 seems favorable, Bitcoin and others might enjoy sustainable relief into previously lost territory.

In the options market, as NewsBTC reported, players are betting on buy (call) contracts and sell (put) contracts targeting $30,000 and $10,000, respectively. The max pain for these contracts expiring in December is $20,000. Will BTC trend in that direction?

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSDT Chart 3 — BTC Options’ Open Interest for the December 30th expiry. Source: Deribit

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

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