Quant Explains Why The Bitcoin Cycle Top Isn’t In Yet

Keshav Verma

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 1:58 pm

3 mins read

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According to a CryptoQuant analyst, the Bitcoin price top isn’t in yet if the pattern of past bull cycles holds any weight.

Bitcoin Might Reach A New ATH In This Cycle

As per a CryptoQuant post, it’s possible that Bitcoin hasn’t yet reached the cycle top, and that a new all time high (ATH) might be achieved soon.

There are two ways to define a cycle. The first is to make the initial point the BTC halving. Here is a chart that shows how the price of the coin moved in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 bull cycles based on this criterion:

Price vs the number of days after halving in the various bull cycles

As the above graph shows, the 2012 Bitcoin run showed a peak early in the cycle, and then later hit a larger one. This second peak took 371 days to reach.

Next is the 2016 BTC cycle that also followed a similar pattern of one peak before the cycle top. The larger price high wasn’t achieved until 555 days after the start of the cycle.

Finally, there is the current 2020 BTC cycle. If the cycles do indeed follow a pattern, then the latest ATH was the first peak of the cycle, and thus the cryptocurrency might reach a new ATH towards the end of the cycle.

As Bitcoin cycles look to be getting longer, this one won’t reach its ending until after 555 days at least. Presently, the cycle is at 450 days.

The second way a bull cycle can be defined is by taking the start point as the price breaking the last ATH. Based on this idea, the below chart shows the various cycle tops:

The 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull cycle tops

As the above graph shows, all these cycles seem to be following a similar pattern where the top is reached between 283 to 337 days after the start of the run.

If this trend is the more accurate one, then the current BTC top should be hit soon enough as right now the cycle is at 262 days, which means a new ATH could be reached as soon as 21 days later.

BTC Price

Bitcoin’s price has finally gained some solid ground above the $50k level as its value floats around $51.2k at the time of writing. The price of the coin is up 7% in the last 7 days, while gains over the last month are around 18%.

Here is a chart showing the trend in the price of the coin over the past three months:

Bitcoin's price continues to move up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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