September 10: A Bitcoin Game Changer, Says Hedge Fund Founder

Jake Simmons

9 months ago

3 mins read

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Travis Kling, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, is proposing a direct link between the US presidential election outcomes and the Bitcoin price. Via X, Kling delves into the political dynamics and their perceived implications for crypto markets, particularly focusing on the potential re-election of Donald Trump.

Why September 10 Could Be Crucial For Bitcoin

Kling’s analysis hinges on several key political events and their corresponding impacts on betting markets, which he believes are reflective of broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m wrong often. Bitcoin has likely been trading with a correlation to Trump winning. And that makes sense to me. BTC/crypto will be MUCH better off under a Trump admin,” Kling stated.

He emphasized the Democratic National Convention’s perceived shortcomings and an expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as pivotal moments that could drive the Bitcoin price. “The DNC does not appear to be going particularly well. RFK is supposed to be endorsing Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up on Polymarket and if RFK goes for Trump, I would guess Poly would widen out further,” Kling noted. He anticipates these developments will peak on September 10.

This is when the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Philadelphia. “It’s Trump’s to lose IMO. If he shows up for Kamala the way he showed up for Biden, polls/Poly should widen further still.”

Kling expects the Bitcoin price to surge towards $72,000. “Given that BTC is trading with Trump, it would make sense to me that all this would add up to BTC being back up to the top of this 6-month range,” Kling speculated.

However, he also warned of too much optimism. Kling is unsure if the BTC price can break out of the trading range established in mid-March “prior to the election, unless polls/Poly REALLY widen out for Trump. Hate it or love it, this election is highly consequential for us, short-term price action just being one aspect of that.”

Notably, not everyone is sharing Kling’s opinion. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, provided a contrasting perspective. Sigel stated, “Bitcoin is Not Currently Trading With Trump Odds, Though I Expect That to Change.

FalconX, a prominent crypto prime broker, also recently conducted an analysis which scrutinized the correlation between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s electoral odds on Polymarket—a platform for betting on political outcomes. From June 1 to August 15, their findings indicated no apparent correlation, underscoring that other factors might have influenced Bitcoin’s price more significantly. These factors included the 50,000 BTC sell-off by the German government and liquidations by former customers of Mt. Gox.

Undoubtedly a coalition of Trump and Kennedy Jr.’s would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. While it enhances Trump’s odds of winning the US election, another strong Bitcoin supporter would join the Trump campaign. Kennedy Jr., like Trump, has advocated for substantial government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department should purchase 550 Bitcoins daily until it amasses 4 million BTC in reserves.

At press time, BTC traded at $61,067.

Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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