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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions
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Breaking News: Bitcoin Outlook Post Fed's 0.25% Rate Cut: Historical Patterns And Predictions

Short Position Piling Up, Could This Hint At The Next Bitcoin Move?

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
Last Updated: June 11, 2024 1:25 pm
2 mins read
bitcoin

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Bitcoin is still unable to break above or below its current range. Yesterday, BTC’s price was seeing a trading session in the green until a surge in negative news contributed to an increase in selling pressure.

Related Reading | New Study Shows 37% Of People Want Governments To Legalize Bitcoin

Traditional markets also tumbled and added to the downside price action as Bitcoin approached a major area of resistance at $32,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $29,800 with a 6% loss in the last 24-hours.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

Trading desk QCP Capital published a market update highlighting the rise in Bitcoin dominance as altcoins, such as Ethereum, continue to underperform. This metric is used to measure the percentage of the total crypto market capitalization comprised of BTC alone and currently stands at 47%.

As seen below, the last time this metric was at its current levels was in November 2021 when the market took a final move to the upside before a major crash on December 3 that year. After that, Bitcoin dominance trended to the downside and moved sideways until mid-May 2022.

Bitcoin dominance BTCD
BTC Dominance trends to the upside on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC.D Tradingview

If the upside trend in Bitcoin dominance continues, the altcoin market could experience more pain as BTC’s price remains rangebound. However, the short-term seems ready for some relief.

QCP Capital noted an increase in the number of short positions across the market. The trading desk said the following in its report:

If this an indication of overall market positioning (i.e. market is directionally short), spot prices might have formed a base here and we could see more spot upside in the short-term.

In a separate report, QCP Capital also noted BTC and the crypto market’s capacity to remain “robust” despite the “massive wipe-out” and general selling across the global market. The firm believes this is a “mark of maturity for crypto as a trading and investment asset class”.

Bitcoin In The Short Term, The Road To $34K

In the same report, the trading desk highlighted what could be the biggest headwind for Bitcoin and the crypto market in 2022. The nascent asset class saw unprecedented growth from 2019 to 2021 on the back of the U.S. expanding its money supply.

As QCP Capital said, the U.S. money supply has gone from expanding to contracting. As the chart below shows, the U.S. money supply recorded its firm monthly contraction since 2011 and hints at more pain for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets. The trading desk added:

This draining of liquidity will only be exacerbated by the upcoming QT balance sheet unwind as well, beginning 1 June. We expect these factors to weigh on crypto prices.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
U.S. money supply contracting which translates into more pain for Bitcoin and risk-on assets. Source: QCP Capital

Related Reading | Bitcoin Market Cap Shed Over $120-B Last Month – How Much More Can It Lose?

On the short-term horizon for Bitcoin, a pseudonym trader believes there are good conditions for a rally to $34,000. The number one crypto by market cap is signaling oversold on certain metrics and was able to maintain to remain rangebound on key indicators.

#Bitcoin– OBV still chopping, good sign we didn't break the chop. Just a little correction to an over inflated pump. #Stock futures caused the sell off, and they'll save it. pic.twitter.com/1tBbs6Qrkc

— IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) June 7, 2022

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

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