The $100K Mirage: Bitcoin’s Rally Not Backed By On-Chain Strength

Christian Encila

2 hours ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin briefly climbed back above $100,000 this month, pushing close to the $108,000 level before a new pullback. The move looks strong on the surface. But based on reports from Glassnode, much of that surge came from traders using borrowed funds, not fresh buyers piling in.

Speculative Bets Fuel Recent Rally

According to on-chain data, late-June’s volume on Bitcoin futures stayed high as prices marched upward. Traders betting on short-term gains drove the market, even as the excitement behind the rally faded. Funding rates and the three-month futures basis both moved lower, signaling less bullish conviction. In other words, fewer people were making big, long bets on Bitcoin these days.

Spot Market Remains Quiet

Spot trading did not follow the futures boom. At its $111,910 peak in May, daily spot volume hovered around $7.65 billion. That’s well below the previous cycle highs, which topped $20 billion on some days. Based on reports, new cash from retail or long-term holders stayed on the sidelines instead of flooding in.

Institutional Buyers Still Adding

Big firms did keep buying. This week saw Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Metaplanet and ProCap BTC together pick up about $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. At the same time, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs bought over $1.5 billion in fresh supply. Those steady purchases hint at genuine interest from institutions, even if short-term traders set the pace recently.

Supply Tightness Could Drive Prices

Glassnode now shows just 7 million BTC left freely available on exchanges. Roughly 14 million BTC are held by people who haven’t moved their coins in ages. That supply squeeze could support prices if demand holds up. But it also means any sudden sell-off might hit hard when exchange wallets run low.

BTC is currently trading at $107,354. Chart: TradingView

What Comes Next For Bitcoin

All in all, the recent jump above $100,000 feels more like a sprint by margin players than a marathon fueled by new believers. Corrections often follow rallies driven by heavy margin activity. Yet, the ongoing buying by big companies and ETFs offers a buffer. If they keep at it, Bitcoin may need a breather now but could rally again later.

As of June 28, Bitcoin traded at $106,500, down 0.85% on the day. Market watchers will be looking for a return of fresh spot demand or a stabilizing of futures bets before declaring the uptrend back on solid ground.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Christian Encila

They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that's not just a metaphor, it's a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian's journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling - right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he's one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian's all work and no play? Not a chance! When he's not at his computer, you'll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian's got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here's the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day - and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors - and bosses - he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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