Wall Street’s Bold Bet: Bitcoin Could Hit $200K By December, Banking Giant Says

Christian Encila

5 hours ago

3 mins read

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Bitcoin has jumped more than 170% from its launch‑month price around $45,000 to about $123,000 earlier this month.

Based on reports from Citi, the bank has laid out three scenarios for where the price might land by year‑end 2025. These range from a low of $64,000 in a weak market to a bull case of $199,000 if everything goes right.

ETF Flows Take Center Stage In Bitcoin Uptrend

According to Citi analysts, spot Bitcoin ETFs now explain over 40% of the recent price swings. Since their debut, US ETFs have snapped up about $54.66 billion worth of Bitcoin.

That buying power helped drive BTC from roughly $45,000 to $123,000 in just a few months. The bank’s base case assumes another $15 billion in ETF inflows this year. At the ratio they’ve modeled—about $4 of price per $1 of flow—that would add around $63,000 to Bitcoin’s value.

🚨 Bitcoin Could Surge to $199K by Year-End, Says Citi

Citigroup has released a new forecast projecting Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by the end of 2025 in its base-case scenario. The bullish case estimates a potential rise to $199,000, while the bearish outlook places the… pic.twitter.com/3Kp1o8OGsn

— The Tradesman (@The_Tradesman1) July 26, 2025

User Growth Fuels Network Effects

Based on figures from trading desks and on‑chain metrics, Citi expects a 20% rise in active Bitcoin users over the next year. That jump in adoption would support roughly $75,000 of price strength on its own.

The idea is simple. More users mean more hands holding and trading Bitcoin. That activity tends to make prices less prone to sudden drops. Still, forecasts like this rest on the assumption that new users stick around rather than flipping coins for quick gains.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,598. Chart: TradingView

Macroeconomic Factors Cut Forecast Slightly

Citi’s model also factors in weaker performance in equities and gold, trimming the price by about $3,200. That adjustment reflects a view that if stock and metal markets struggle, Bitcoin won’t fully decouple from broader risk assets.

At the same time, growing regulatory approval and deeper links between crypto and traditional finance should offer some support.

ETF Demand Could Lift Bitcoin By $63,000

In the base‑case scenario, Citi adds the $63,000 from ETF flows to the $75,000 from user growth, then subtracts $3,200 for macro headwinds.

That math lands the price at about $135,000 in 2025. That figure is only $12,000 above the recent peak of $123,000. It suggests Citi sees more upside but not a runaway rally—at least not in the base case.

A Bull Case Of $199,000 Remains On The Table

If ETFs keep pouring in far more than $15 billion and user growth exceeds 20%, Bitcoin could climb to $199,000 under Citi’s bull case.

Conversely, a drop to $64,000 is possible if macro conditions sour sharply. Globally, ETFs now hold around 1.48 million BTC, worth over $170 billion—about 7% of the total supply.

That level of institutional backing is unprecedented. It shifts Bitcoin’s fate more toward big‑money flows than pure retail hype.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Christian Encila

They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that's not just a metaphor, it's a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian's journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling - right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he's one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian's all work and no play? Not a chance! When he's not at his computer, you'll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian's got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here's the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day - and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors - and bosses - he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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