The past 12 hours have been a blur for the crypto asset market. In a matter of hours, Bitcoin (BTC) rushed passed key resistance levels at $8,000, $8,400, and $8,800. This marked the first time that BTC had decisively broken above $8,400 since May… 2018.
Sitting at $8,850 as of the time of writing this, Bitcoin is situated in an area of minimal support and resistance, leading some to postulate what comes next for digital assets. Let’s take a look at what analysts think.
Nothing But Hot Air
According to a number of analysts, Bitcoin closing its daily and weekly candle above $8,400 confirms that a move higher is still inbound. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, Level’s Josh Rager recently noted that now that the close was strong, he believes a foray to $9,600 may come to fruition. As he wrote in a recent tweet: “Goodbye meme triangle, hello $9k+ targets. Bitcoin could cool off, run sideways but IMO will continue to move up over $9k.”
Some are sure that $9,600 isn’t even relevant though. In a recent tweet, macro researcher Alex Krüger noted that $9,600, which is an important Fibonacci retracement level, is likely irrelevant in the current set up. He postulates that retracement analysis always results in “too many levels”, noting that $10,000 is where he expects BTC to struggle next. Or in other words, from here to $10,000, there is only hot air.
Indeed, as seen in the chart below, Bitcoin topped out at $10,000 in May, indicating that it is a horizontal level of importance. To reach $10,000 from here, BTC will need to rally by $1,150, which would be a 13% move higher from current levels.
Yet, $10,000 might be just the start. Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, explained to his followers a few weeks back that by the time BTC hits quintuple digits, the fear of missing out (FOMO) will activate in those who “saw Bitcoin as dead forever.” In other words, once the aforementioned level is breached, a newfangled, jaw-dropping wave of buying pressure may grace these markets.
Technicals also support the idea that once $10,000 is cracked, the sky may just be the limit.
Adamant Capital’s Tuur Demeester exclaimed last week that Bitcoin continues to hold in a bullish parabola, which has acted as support for BTC since December 13th’s jaw-dropping bottom. In fact, the asset touched the parabola in February, late-March, early-April (to kick off the current rally), throughout early-May, and just last week. If this trend continues, as it has been for months, the Adamant representative suggests that Bitcoin could rally by 40% — around $3,000 — from current levels to hit $11,000 by early-June.
Somehow, someway, other analysts have been even more optimistic. Dave The Wave recently noted that if you chart hard enough, Bitcoin is still in the midst of a parabola pattern that could see it head to $20,000, and maybe even beyond. Of course, this seems too optimistic, but as Dave writes: “these markets be crazy.”
OK, so as the price target for the parabola was off the charts [lol], here is what is possible. these markets be crazy. pic.twitter.com/elAKvTVoMt
— dave the wave (@davthewave) May 27, 2019
With cryptocurrency-friendly products and services on the horizon from TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Bakkt (the Intercontinental Exchange), Fidelity Investments — four of the largest financial institutions on Wall Street — this might just be possible. Well, that’s what bulls want to believe anyway.
Could Bitcoin Reverse?
Some have been a tad skeptical, however. Tone Vays, for one. In a recent interview with MMCrypto, explained that he “doesn’t trust this rally.” He went on to say that BTC could revisit $4,200 in June, 50% lower than current levels.
What’s more, there are some fractals that last week stated that Bitcoin was topping out. Trader Nunya Bizniz notes that Bitcoin’s chart from the market bottom in December to now was then almost essentially identical to that seen in 2015. He notes that while a bull run is most likely on, there may be a correction of around 40%, which would place BTC back in the $4,000s or $5,000s.
A turn up in the 200DMA has never failed to iniyiate a bull run. However, there have been corrections. Prior bottom = 200dma turns up, price goes parabolic and then corrects 40%. Things are looking pretty "fractaly" this time around. Repeat? pic.twitter.com/NPGKz75tLR
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) May 21, 2019
It is important to note that this fractal hasn’t been resized to the recent rally, making it entirely possible that Bitcoin, whether you want to believe it or not, is trading in entirely new territory. While BTC is known for its cyclicality, it has and will continue to deviate from historical trends as time goes on, especially as more investors and money flood into this space.
Let’s wait and see what happens, all right?
Featured Image from Shutterstock. Charts Courtesy of TradingView.