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Home Cryptocurrency news Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin Price Benefit From The Halloween Effect?

Tony Spilotro by Tony Spilotro
1 year ago
in Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency news
Reading Time: 3min read
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There’s a theory, dubbed “The Halloween Effect” that believes that stocks and other assets like Bitcoin perform best starting from October 31 through May, then they do during the other half of the year.

Will Bitcoin price benefit from such effect, or is the idea nothing more than an appropriately spooky superstition for this time of the year?

What is The Halloween Effect?

Investors and traders use a number of tools such as technical and fundamental analysis to attempt to determine the strength or weakness of an asset before setting a buy order. Some analysts use more unorthodox methods, such as dates, cycles, math, and even astrology.

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There’s even a common theory that each year, starting in November, assets will perform better and provide greater returns on investment through May, than they will in the other half of the calendar year.

Related Reading | Research Shows That Holidays Cause FOMO Fireworks in Bitcoin Price Charts 

This theory is called The Halloween Effect, The Halloween Indicator, or The Halloween Strategy and suggests that buying an asset to hold throughout the winter months will reward the investor handsomely. The trader or investor is then encouraged to “sell in May and go away” – the other half of the market timing-based strategy.

But does this also hold true for Bitcoin markets? Data from each October 31 through May 1 period dating back to Bitcoin’s last bull market suggests that the theory may prove to be accurate, sans just one period on Bitcoin price charts.

bitcoin price the halloween effect

(Click for full-sized version)

Bitcoin Price Gains On Average Nearly 50% Per Halloween Through May Timeframe

As the bear market came to an end for Bitcoin in 2015, October 31 through May was the kickstart to the bull run crypto investors needed, bringing those who invested in the young, emerging asset over a 41% increase.

During the next Halloween Effect timeframe, running from October 31, 2016, to May 1, 2017, Bitcoin’s bull market was in high gear and brought investors a 117% return on investment. Although, had investors listened and sold in May as they are told, they would have missed out on another 335% increase.

Between October 31, 2017, and May 1, 2018, Bitcoin had set its all-time high of $20,000 and retraced back down to $5,800 at that point, yet on May 1, 2018, Bitcoin had still increased over 52% from the previous Halloween. Sell in May and go away would have worked well in this case, as Bitcoin entered into a deep bear market after this.

Related Reading | Mark Your Crypto Calendars, Here Are Bitcoin Dates To Watch

From October 2018, through May 2019, it was the only decline following Halloween, resulting in a -12.5% drop in value.

This Halloween, Bitcoin is interestingly trading at roughly the same price it was trading at on May 1, 2018. The crypto asset is currently priced at $9,200 per BTC, following the asset’s third-largest single-day gain in its history.

Could the massive pump be investors gearing up for The Halloween Effect? It’s possible – on average, Bitcoin rose nearly 50% from October 31 to May 1 in each year analyzed. With Bitcoin’s halving set to take place in May 2020, the potential for an increase this time around is the greatest its been. And with prices expected to reach $55,000 per BTC by the next halving according to a highly cited stock-to-flow model, it could result in the largest Halloween Effect gain yet in Bitcoin, taking the price to $55,000 as predicted and resulting in a staggering 497% gain from current prices.

Happy Halloween!

Tags: bitcoinbitcoin pricecryptosell in may and go awaythe halloween effect
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Tony Spilotro

Tony Spilotro

I'm Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I'm a digital media executive and global remote work leader with a decade of content experience and excellent. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck - literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn't yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can't yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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