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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30
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Breaking News: LINK Price Climbs Following Chainlink's Deal With US Commerce Department, Eyes $30

Will Bitcoin See A Repeat Of November 2018? A Look At The On-Chain Data

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin bear

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The Bitcoin price is lingering just under $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released last week, the BTC price plunged to just that price level.

BTC USD chart
Bitcoin lingering under $19.000. Source: TradingView

Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound happened, catching shorters off guard. With November 02 – when the FED meets again – in mind, the Bitcoin price doesn’t have much room to fall below that level at the moment. Moreover, a look at the on-chain suggests another crash is possible in the short term, although there are positive signals as well.

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According to CryptoQuant, a bear market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) goes above the realized price of all coins bought (red line) and when the BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins.

CryptoQuant Bitcoin analysis
Bitcoin’s downside potential. Source: CryptoQuant

The analysis concludes that the Bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this respect, the drop from $6,000 to $3,000 is comparable to the price decline from $30,000 to $18.000, as the percentage decline in the last bear market from $6,000 to $3,000 was 50%.

That being said, the bottom may not have been seen yet:

The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7k would put BTC at $15k (-18% from the current price). Similar to the $14.7k delta price.

Contradictory On-Chain Data For Bitcoin

With Santiment, another major on-chain analysis service stated that the Bitcoin market needs to ideally see accumulation at the moment, while small traders remain bearish and spread doom and gloom.

However, contradictory data is showing up in this regard. Thus, Bitcoin’s small to mid-sized addresses (with 0.1 to 10 BTC) have recently reached an all-time high of 15.9% of available supply. At the same time, whales with 100 to 10,000 BTC have recorded a 3-year low of 45.6% of supply.

On the bullish side, Bitcoin experienced a massive outflow of coins from exchanges on October 18. Santiment recorded the largest daily volume in 4 months, amounting to 40,572 BTC. With this, the supply of coins on all exchanges has dropped to 8.48%. This means that the risk of a future sell-off has decreased at least somewhat.

Santiment data of Bitcoin
Bitcoin exchange supply at a 4-year low. Source: Twitter

Related Reading

Bitcoin Dominance To Regain Control Over Crypto? | BTC.D Analysis October 20, 2022

1 year ago

Bullish data is also reported by the third major on-chain data provider Glassnode. Bitcoin supply which has not moved in the last 6 months is approaching an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of circulating supply or about 3.485 million BTC. Glassnode writes:

Historically, very low volumes of mobile supply typically occur after prolonged bear markets.

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research LLC, recently quoted an old trader’s adage, “Never short a dull market,” which may apply more than ever to the Bitcoin market.

According to his analysis, the realized volatility meaning the backwardation or actual volatility is at a 2-year low and is recording one of the lowest levels of all time.

Markets bottom on apathy, not excitement. BTC and ETH have apathy. The S&P 500 is nearly the opposite, as prices move around like a video game.  This might also be another sign of the TradFi/Crypto tight relationship breaking. If so, this is long-run bullish for crypto.

Diverging volatility could therefore be a sign of this shift and ultimately trigger a long-term positive trend.

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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

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His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
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