As soon as Bitcoin broke up and out of the trading range where the current bottom was set, the cryptocurrency community was certain it spelled the end to the bear market, and that Bitcoin was entering a new bull run – one that would take it to its next all-time high at prices predicted to be as high as $100,000.
But the leading crypto asset by market cap failed to set a new high, something that the asset has never failed to do in the past, suggesting that the ongoing secular bull market Bitcoin has been in for some time, may finally be ending, and a longer bear market may be ahead.
Crypto Analyst: Bull Market Failure Means Bitcoin Could Enter First True Bear Market
In April 2019, Bitcoin broke up and out of a consolidation range and accumulation phase near lows set in late 2018. Once that occurred, and FOMO set in, the price of Bitcoin quickly skyrocketed to $14,000.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Price En Route to Descending Triangle Target of $5,000
Once Bitcoin reached resistance at $14,000, it was rejected, and the asset began consolidating under that resistance, forming a descending triangle that ultimately broke down, potentially changing the trend back into a bear market.
The market and its participants were convinced that Bitcoin has started its next bull run, however, the first-ever cryptocurrency – for the first time in its existence – failed to set a new high during a bull rally.
This brings up a serious concern. There is a possibility that the bull market has ended and it is now slowly shifting into a bear one.
Current price action has never happened in previous bitcoin history. Ever. Throw the fractal memes out the window and maintain an objective view
— the dude (@cryptodude999) October 25, 2019
But according to some theories, Bitcoin has actually never been in a bear market at all, and has since its inception been in a secular bull market – a long-term trend that may have just been broken, and according to a prominent crypto analyst “should not be taken lightly.”
Critical Long-Term Trend Indicator Backs Up Theory That BTC Hasn’t Experienced Bear Mode
Currently, the idea that Bitcoin could be entering its first true bear market is just a theory, but an important long-term trend indicator – the monthly MACD – gives more credence to the prediction.
Even when Bitcoin had reached its current “bottom” at $3,100, the monthly MACD never fell below the zero line – suggesting that the cryptocurrency never actually reached bear market territory. Even during the 2014-2015 bear market, the monthly MACD only briefly dropped under the zero line, before rising above it, and going on a multi-year bull rally that ended with Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $20,000.
Related Reading | $1000 BTC: Finding Bitcoin’s Bottom Could Be As Easy As ABC
The same thing should have occurred after BTC bottomed this time around, but instead, momentum failed to carry the asset to a new all-time high. Only time will tell if Bitcoin eventually falls back below the zero line on the MACD, and enters a longer-term bear market. However, crypto investors would be wise to consider the risk and possibility that the bottom isn’t actually in, and that the cryptocurrency could be struggling to enter another bull market again for years to come.