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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

BNY Mellon values Bitcoin on par with gold, what’s their price target?

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
4 years ago
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC

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In February, one of the oldest financial institutions in the United States, Bank of New York Mellon, announced the launch of a custody service for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Claiming that BTC has become a widely accepted asset, the institution opted to get ahead in innovation.

Now, BNY Mellon has published a valuation on Bitcoin comparing the characteristics of gold to the cryptocurrency in an attempt to give tools to determine its value. The BNY Mellon analysts recognize the unique properties of BTC and how difficult it can be to calculate its value when using metrics applied to national currencies. The analysts claimed:

it should be considered as part of the valuation mosaic. At the beginning of May 2020, a single Bitcoin was worth roughly $8,8001 and the total market value of all Bitcoin was worth $160 billion2, accounting for 0.4% of total global currencies. At current rates, if Bitcoin replaced 5% of the world’s currency it would yield over $100,000/Bitcoin.

When comparing Bitcoin’s and gold valuation, BNY Mellon analysts referred to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F and S2FX) model created by Plan B. While acknowledging this model has flaws, they also referred to it as “elegant” with a “much more established gold market framework”. The analysts added:

The implication from this model is that as Bitcoin gains more mainstream momentum and is viewed more like gold, the scarcity value (as measured by S2F) and subsequent halving will ultimately drive prices to the gold dot cluster and implied total market value

However, the report claims valuation is “more art than science” and therefore emphasizes that all models have to reach Bitcoin’s “fair” price will be a “constantly” evolving work.

Bitcoin’s price in the short and long term

Bitcoin is trading at $54,420, at the time of writing, retaking this important support zone. In the 24-hour chart, BTC is moving sideways but still is on a bullish trend in the 30-day chart with 17.8% gains. In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price action was determined by large investors.

Bitcoin BTC
Bitcoin with losses in the 24-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

As indicated by analyst Lex Moskovski, the number of Bitcoin whales holding around 1,000 BTC has dropped to the trend line after peaking on February 21 when a massive sell-off began. Moskovski stated:

However, the price has risen since the start of the dump. This is bullish and also benefits decentralization. Text-book consolidation.

Co-founders of research firm Glassnode, Yan Allemann, and Jan Happel, noted that the cryptocurrency’s near-term performance will be correlated with the level of retail investor spending. BTC’s price could rise if a portion of the recipients of the stimulus package approved by Biden decides to invest in the cryptocurrency.

Many households now have an extra buffer of income to spend, due to new stimulus checks and decreased spending during lockdowns.

Will they invest this into markets or pay off debt?#Bitcoin's April performance will depend on it. https://t.co/UJdLxnfqva pic.twitter.com/xXbEICPjqM

— 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) March 28, 2021

In the long term, Bitcoin’s supply shock will play an important role as crypto exchanges continue to register high levels of BTC outflow. This supply is turning illiquid, as analyst William Clemente noted. Predicting a rise in BTC’s price for Q3-Q4 this year, Clemente said:

the increase of negative-yielding bonds will leave fixed-income investors desperately searching for yield. With everything being manipulated in the fiat world, all roads lead to the free and open Bitcoin market.

 

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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