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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

CPI Data For June Is A Bullish Surprise For Bitcoin And Crypto

Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons
1 year ago
3 mins read
Bitcoin crypto CPI release

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today, has sent ripples of optimism throughout the Bitcoin and crypto market. The latest figures reveal a surprising cooling in inflation, which has ignited hopes of a positive outlook.

According to the data, the headline CPI year-over-year (YoY) inflation fell to 3.0%, coming in below expectations of 3.1%. This represents a noteworthy decline from the previous month’s 4.0% figure.

Even more encouraging is the fact that core CPI YoY inflation dropped to 4.8%, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%. Notably, this is the first time the core CPI has fallen below 5.0% since December 2021, leading analysts at The Kobeissi Letter to remark, “The 26-month battle against inflation may finally be nearing its end.”

On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, headline CPI came in at 0.3%, picking up slightly compared to May (+0.1%). Meanwhile, core CPI m/m came in lower than expected, landing at 0.3% instead of 0.4%.

BREAKING: US inflation below expectations #Bitcoin

Headline CPI YoY 3.0% (forecast 3.1%, last 4.0%)
Headline CPI MoM 0.2% (forecast 0.3%, last 0.1%)
Core CPI YoY 4.8% (forecast 5.0%, last 5.3%)
Core CPI MoM 0.2% (forecast 0.3%, last 0.4%)

— Jake Simmons (@realJakeSimmons) July 12, 2023

Why The CPI Data Is Crucial For Bitcoin And Crypto

The Fed has raised interest rates by 5.0 basis points since March 2022 to bring down the highest inflation in the US in four decades. During the June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a pause for the first time in this cycle to give itself time to assess the still-evolving impact of the previous hikes. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as always, stressed data dependency.

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Prior to the release of the CPI and core CPI, the market was expecting a 92% probability (according to the CME Fed Watch Tool) that Fed policymakers would decide in favor of a 0.25 basis points rate hike at their July 25-26 meeting, which would bring the policy rate into the 5.25% to 5.50% range. Today’s figures are likely to influence the decision by the Fed. However,

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly recently said at a Brookings Institution event that the Fed “may end up doing less because we have to do less; we may end up doing just that; we may end up doing more. The data will tell us.”

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Despite that, 20 minutes after the CPI release, the CME Fed Watch Tool still displayed a 89% of a 25 basis point hike at the end of July. Renowned journalist Walter Bloomberg, citing “The Economists,” stated that the surprisingly good CPI reading is unlikely to deter the Fed from raising interest rates by a quarter point later this month. But, he notes that this rate hike could potentially be the last one in the current cycle.

In that vein, it’s important to note that he Fed’s inflation job might not be done yet. Despite headline inflation trending lower and approaching the 2% target fast, sticky inflation is still at levels last seen in 1982, as the following chart shows. The sticky price consumer price index less food and energy is still highly elevated, causing fear of a re-emergence of higher headline inflation.

Historical core inflation
Historical core inflation | Source: Twitter @GameofTrades_

Fed research published two days ago by economist Michael Kiley showed that core CPI data in 2022 and early 2023 were consistent with models showing greater persistence. “Updating forecasts from these models suggests core CPI inflation is likely to remain above 3.5% thru 2024,” writes Kiley.

BTC Price Reacts Cautiously

At press time, the Bitcoin price quickly jumped above $31,000 before retracing under $30,800. In the coming hours, the market’s true valuation of the data remains to be seen.

As analyst Daan explained via Twitter, there is often an initial positive market reaction to positive CPI releases. This rally often lasts between 5 and 15 minutes, after which it begins to roll over. The price then tends to look for liquidity just below the “data release candle”.

Bitcoin price
BTC above mid-range resistance, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.

Read more

His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.

Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.

For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.

As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.

In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.

You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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