Dwindling Bitcoin Volatility Could Lead To Decisive Move

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:17 pm

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price exploded through resistance at $10,000 and has flipped it into support that’s thus far held strong. The support level has proven just as unbreakable as it was on the way up, fending off three major negative news events in one week.

But despite the lack of downside, there’s also been limited upside, taking historical volatility down to lows. When volatility dips this much in Bitcoin, a decisive move tends to follow. The remaining question is: which way?

Bollinger Bands, Historical Volatility Point To Massive Decisive Move In Bitcoin, But Which Way?

The cryptocurrency asset class has earned a notorious reputation for its explosive volatility that can send prices soaring or crashing to extremes.

Bitcoin is a prime example of this, rocketing from under $1,000 to over $20,000 in just a year. Hardcore crypto believers expect the asset to repeat this performance with each halving, which some discrepancy of course.

The first step in that journey was taking out $10,000 – something that took more than a year to do again after losing the level in 2019. Bitcoin spent weeks gearing up for the move, taking volatility to historic lows before an over $1,000 move in 24 hours brought the cryptocurrency to $12,000.

BTCUSD Daily Bollinger Bands & Historical Volatility | Source: TradingView

That same sort of tranquility and dwindling volatility is back – but is this time to send Bitcoin crashing down back through the key level, or is the cryptocurrency about to depart from that support level for the last time?

It is impossible to say, and the results are mixed each time volatility has fallen this low in the past. The direction of the breakout typically heads toward whichever side the price action is on compared to the mid-BB.

Bitcoin price is currently trading exactly at this mid-point, suggesting today’s close could decide which way the major move heads.

Indecision Even Comes Down To The Candle, Renko Shows

BTCUSD Weekly Renko Indecision Examples | Source: TradingView

Further demonstrating this indecision, is Bitcoin price weekly charts, when switching traditional Japanese candlesticks to Renko.

Renko cuts out noise and more clearly shows the trend at hand – or in this case that there isn’t one with a handful of red doji. When the series of doji candles finally breaks up or down, some of the crypto asset’s largest moves result, and the trend is set for weeks to come.

Bitcoin just opened a fourth doji candle within less than a 1% range in the candle body of the rest of the cluster. As soon as this range breaks, there could be a decisive move. But again, in which direction? It’s not clear, but one analyst says that the move will be at least “$1K” in whatever direction it is.

Featured image from DepositPhotos, Charts from TradingView

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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