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As most of the crypto market retests crucial levels, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to reclaim a major horizontal area. Some market observers have warned that cryptocurrency could fall to new lows if the price doesn’t bounce soon.
Ethereum Weekly Close On Sight
On Thursday, Ethereum dropped 1.4% to retest a key area for the second consecutive day. After hitting a 10-month low of $1,747, the King of Altcoins bounced more than 15% to trade between $2,000 and $2,150 over the past few days.
However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to hold the crucial $2,000 horizontal barrier on Wednesday and tested the $1,900 mark for the first time in a week.
After attempting to reclaim the key psychological level in the early hours of Thursday, Ethereum was rejected toward the recent lows, briefly falling below it. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the importance of ETH’s current zone, as it has previously triggered major moves.
To him, if the altcoin fails to reclaim the $2,000 area in the coming days, a full retrace toward the recent lows should be expected soon. Similarly, market observer Crypto Busy noted that the cryptocurrency is currently trading above a major long-term support.
According to the post, the recent correction has sent Ethereum toward a three-year rising support line, which “will decide the next big move.” The analyst warned that “If the trendline breaks with strong weekly closes below $1,900, the structure weakens.”
Therefore, ETH must hold its current levels in the coming days to avoid a weekly close below this level. Otherwise, its price could drop “into the next liquidity pockets around $1,600 and possibly $1,300, where the next historical support zones exist.”
Is ETH’s ‘Real’ Bull Market Two Years Away?
Trader AlejandroXBT shared a potential macro-outlook for Ethereum that suggests the cryptocurrency could still see another major shakeout:
My thesis is that the major bullish move that began around 2019–2020 has transitioned into a large and prolonged macro correction, and that Ethereum has been consolidating within this broader corrective structure ever since.
He outlined four phases for the macro structure: the pump, the correction, the shakeout, and the moon. The initial phase, which occurred between 2019 and 2021, marked “the true impulsive bullish move,” with strong trend expansion and increasing momentum.
According to the market observer, the strong rally that followed the 2022 bear market appears to be a “counter-trend move within a broader corrective range” rather than a renewed bull market and the start of a new long-term cycle.
As he explained, ETH’s range-bound behavior signals distribution and consolidation instead of continuation. “From this perspective, the apparent bull market that developed within the correction can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce, a technically strong bounce occurring inside a larger corrective structure,” he affirmed.
Therefore, the current macro structure would suggest that a final shakeout phase could “still be required to fully reset sentiment and liquidity before Ethereum can transition into a new impulsive bullish cycle.”
Based on this, the trader anticipated a final liquidity-driven move to the downside in the coming months, followed by “the moon” phase, potentially next year, when “the structure suggests the conditions for a true long-term bullish continuation, with price discovery and expansion well beyond previous highs.”
