When Will Ethereum Turn Overheated? Report Says Watch This Level

Keshav Verma

1 day ago

2 mins read

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A new report from Glassnode has revealed a historically significant Ethereum level that could mark the start of an overheated phase if breached.

Ethereum Is Moving Towards Active Realized Price

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about some valuation models for Ethereum. The models in question are the Realized Price, True Market Mean, and Active Realized Price.

The first of these, the Realized Price, refers to the average cost basis or acquisition price of all tokens of the cryptocurrency that are currently part of the circulating supply.

The other two models, the True Market Mean and Active Realized Price, also aim to find the network cost basis, but both of these exclude for the long-dormant coins. Such tokens are likely to be lost due to missing wallets keys, so they aren’t part of the economic supply. Thus, these models may provide for a more accurate measure of the market situation than the Realized Price.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the three on-chain pricing models for Ethereum over the last few years:

Ethereum Price Chart — The price of the coin appears to have surged past all of these levels | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 29, 2025

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum Realized Price, True Market Mean, and Active Investor Price are situated around $2,100, $2,500, and $3,000, respectively. This means that at ETH’s current spot value, all models agree that the holders as a whole are in the green.

But now that the asset has escaped above these lines, what could be next? “In order to gauge upside targets for this ETH rally, we can turn to the +1 standard deviation band of Ethereum’s Active Realized Price,” notes Glassnode.

The +1 standard deviation (SD) band of the indicator happens to be where selling pressure has intensified in the past. The reason behind the trend may lie in the fact that investor profits become significant beyond this boundary, so mass selloffs with the purpose of profit-taking can become more likely to take place.

Below is a chart that shows where this level currently lies for ETH.

From the graph, it’s visible that the Ethereum Active Realized Price +1 SD is located at $4,500 today. ETH is currently still at a distance from the level, but if its recent bullish push continues, it might end up retesting it.

In the current cycle so far, ETH has tested the boundary once, in March 2024. Back then, the cryptocurrency found rejection at it. In the 2021 bull run, the coin was able to surge past it, but in doing so, it kicked off the unsustainable euphoria market phase.

“As such, $4,500 can be identified as a critical level to watch on the upside, especially if Ethereum’s uptrend continues and speculative froth builds further,” explains the analytics firm.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $3,600, up almost 7% in the last seven days.

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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