Ethereum’s Rally Isn’t What It Seems — Here’s What’s Really Driving It

Samuel Edyme

5 hours ago

3 mins read

Ethereum's Rally Isn't What It Seems — Here's What's Really Driving It

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Ethereum has extended its upward momentum this week, climbing over 20% in the past seven days and pushing past $3,600 for the first time in months. As of the time of writing, ETH trades at $3,617, marking a 5.4% increase within the past 24 hours.

This rally has been drawing attention from analysts who are examining whether the price movement is being driven by sustainable investor demand or short-term speculative activity.

Ethereum Futures Market Leads, But Spot Demand Lags Behind

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests the recent uptrend in Ethereum’s price is primarily fueled by the derivatives market. Contributor Avocado Onchain noted that while ETH continues to move higher, the underlying source of momentum appears to be leverage-heavy futures positions rather than sustained buying in the spot market.

This distinction raises questions about the durability of the current rally and whether follow-through demand from spot buyers will emerge. Avocado further highlighted in his QuickTake analysis titled “Ethereum’s Rally Driven by Futures Market — Will Spot Demand Follow?” that the Ethereum Futures Volume Bubble Map is signaling an overheated state in specific zones, indicated by surging volumes.

Ethereum Futures Volume Bubble Map. | Source: CryptoQuant

This increase in futures volume, marked by yellow circles on the map, has coincided with ETH’s price gains, implying leveraged positions are largely responsible for the rise.

In contrast, the spot market data shows relative stability, with no equivalent spike in volume, suggesting that buying pressure from traditional investors has yet to catch up.

The analyst also pointed out that Ethereum’s Open Interest (OI) in futures has reached new all-time highs, which strengthens the idea that the current movement is speculative in nature.

The question moving forward, according to Avocado, is whether momentum from the derivatives market will eventually be matched by genuine spot market demand. If such demand materializes, it could contribute to broader altcoin market activity, he added.

Institutional Interest and ETF Inflows

In a separate insight, another CryptoQuant analyst, Crypto Dan, noted increasing signs of institutional participation in Ethereum accumulation. According to his analysis, ETH is trading at a premium on Coinbase, a platform frequently used by US-based institutions and large investors, indicating heightened buying interest from whales.

Ethereum Coinbase premium gap. | Source: CryptoQuant

The premium, described as rare in recent times, aligns with a broader trend of capital inflows into Ethereum-focused spot ETFs, which have recently reached record daily highs.

Dan stated that while current metrics do not indicate overheating, investors should remain aware of potential risks should the strong upward activity repeat in the second half of 2025.

For now, however, the combination of rising institutional demand and growing ETF allocations may provide structural support for Ethereum, especially if the spot market begins to reinforce the momentum sparked in the futures space.

Ethereum (ETH) price chart on TradingView — ETH price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname - HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think's probably unfeasible, I've done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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