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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Finding Bitcoin’s True Point of Pain, Why Sub $30K Seems Likely

Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez
3 years ago
2 mins read
A bitcoin in front of a red market chart

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Bitcoin maintains its bullish short-term trajectory into the U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, suggesting the downtrend might be losing strength. BTC investors have feel the pain in the last weeks, as the cryptocurrency displays a high correlation with the U.S. stock market.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Whales Take Advantage Of Market Crash To Gobble Up Millions In BTC

As of press time, BTC trades at $38,301 with a 2.3% profit in 24-hours.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
BTC with moderate gains in the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

Data presented by Joe Orsini, Director of Research for Eaglebrook Advisors, Bitcoin has historically experienced a positive performance in terms of percentage on FOMC announcement days. As seen below, the current FED Chair Jerome Powell’s administration has boosted the price of BTC as much as 20% during these days.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Joe Orsini via Twitter

In addition, the chart shows that the BTC percentage change in the daily chart it’s typically moderate during these events. Probably due to the market already pricing in any potential announcements.

With the exception of April 2020, every FOMC meeting is followed by moderate price swings on these timeframes with the largest downside change near 5%. If Bitcoin remains on its current trend, it could score yet another bullish post FOMC trading day.

However, when the current Bitcoin drawdown is compared to that of April 2020, and July 2021, BTC seems ready for further losses. On the latter periods, BTC dropped below 60% and 50% before a significant price reversion.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Teddy Vallee via Twitter

On the contrary, it only briefly recovered when it failed to drop below the aforementioned percentage. This suggests more downside after a dead cat bounce probably to the $40,000 area.

Bears Ready Ammunition? Bitcoin Reacts To Macro-Factors

During the current price action, investment firm QCP Capital has seen an increase in selling pressure for the spot market. In addition, short terms option contracts have experienced “aggressive buying” as large investors hedge their positions.

Related Reading | Fidelity Says What We’ve Been Thinking: Countries & Central Banks Will Buy BTC

QCP Capital has seen more confidence in the market as BTC recovers, but the firm is “not sure” if the market has seen the lows and will resume its full bullish trend. The firm compared the change in At-the-money options volumes for BTC and ETH when its price crashed in May 2021, and today.

10/ While front-end vols spiked hard with BTC 1-week from 70% to 100% and ETH 1-week from 85% to over 120%, the longer end of the vol curve remained relatively tame. The curve from March onward moved higher by only 5-6% to a very modest 75% level. pic.twitter.com/f2smBbl4dB

— QCP (@QCPgroup) January 26, 2022

At that time, the metric recorded a spike of up to 250% for ETH while current volumes remained “relatively tame”. In other words, the options sector seems to suggest BTC could be in for more blood. The firm added:

Does this mean that the market has yet to reach it’s true point of pain? Below 30,000 level in BTC perhaps? A lot of the short-term price action is going to depend on the Fed statement later today (…). Given the bloodshed in equities, chances are that we’ll get a fairly neutral statement and mkt will take that as an excuse to rally. A short squeeze across the board is likely.

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Reynaldo Marquez
Reynaldo Marquez

Reynaldo Marquez

A literature major, Reynaldo Márquez has been deeply immersed in the crypto industry since 2017. His journey began with translating articles for various crypto news outlets, a role he took on with zeal. In 2018, amidst a challenging market, he embraced his first writing assignment, demonstrating his unwavering commitment to the nascent industry and the promise of change it bears for many people worldwide.
In March 2021, he joined the prestigious crypto news outlet NewsBTC and Bitcoinist, where he not only reported on the latest crypto news but also had the privilege of interviewing some of the industry's most influential figures. A year later, his dedication and hard work were recognized, and he was promoted to Managing Editor, a position he currently holds with pride.
He believes in honesty, good communication, hard work, and the power of cryptocurrency and its potential to transform people's lives, especially those alienated by the legacy financial system. Born in 1992 in Venezuela, Reynaldo is familiar with how governments and central banks can negatively affect people, their everyday lives, and their futures by creating inflation and erasing their hopes for a better future. Thus, like many Venezuelans, he embraced this new technology to help him and his family navigate difficult times.
In another life, Reynaldo would have pursued a career as an investigator, most likely tracking down the origins of the Cyberpunk movement with the publication of William Gibson’s ‘Neuromancer.’ The intersection between fiction and reality, with the materialization of Bitcoin in 2009, would have allowed him to dive deep into the crypto sphere as something more than a financial phenomenon but also a cultural shift in society that was brewing since the XX century, and maybe even sooner, in the XIX century with the publication of Henry David Thoreau’s ‘Civil Disobedience.’
But that’s for another life. In this one, Reynaldo has been trading to improve his trading skills. Since 2023, he has been trying to learn Python to create successful strategies and find ways to execute them. It is a difficult task, which continues to keep him busy today and will most likely continue to keep him busy in the near and long term.
In his free time, he enjoys lifting heavy objects, reading, watching movies, and listening to his favorite music. Some of his favorite authors are Walt Whitman, William Faulkner, Allen Ginsberg, James Baldwin, Raymond Carver, Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, Mario Vargas Llosa, Reinaldo Arenas, Rafael Cadenas, and many others. Lately, he has been primarily interested in reading about dystopic societies, a topic that deeply resonates with the crypto industry.
Since 2023, he has lived in Spain with his wife. He loves the weather, the food, and the people and their culture. They both expect to travel much more within the country they now call home and beyond its border. He hopes to retire with his wife, maybe in a quiet place near a beach, but most likely in a city close to a library and a university with his kids and, hopefully, grandkids.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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