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Breaking News: Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum Dip Post Fed's Rate Cut: What’s Next For Crypto?
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Breaking News: Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum Dip Post Fed's Rate Cut: What’s Next For Crypto?

Glassnode: Bitcoin Is Yet To See This Historic Late-Bear Crossover

Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma
Last Updated: June 11, 2024 10:13 am
3 mins read

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Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin hasn’t yet seen a crossover in the current cycle that has historically marked late-bear periods.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Still Above Long-Term Holder’s

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the STH and LTH realized price crossover hasn’t yet taken place during the current bear market.

The “realized price” is a metric that signifies the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. Its value is calculated by dividing the realized cap with the total number of coins in circulation.

Whenever the usual price of BTC moves below the value of this indicator, the average investor goes into a state of loss.

Related Reading: Quant Suggests Bitcoin Will Be Back In The Driver Seat After Ethereum Merge

This cost basis can also naturally be calculated specifically for different holder groups. The relevant cohorts here are the “long-term holders” and the “short-term holders”; here is a chart showing the trend in the realized prices of these two groups over the last several years:

Bitcoin Realized Price For LTHs and STHs

The values of the two metrics seem to be approaching each other | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 37, 2022

Long-term holders (LTHs) include all those Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago, while short-term holders (STHs) are those who have kept their coins still for less than that.

As you can see in the above graph, the realized prices (RPs) of these two cohorts observed crossovers during the last two bear markets.

Related Reading: TA: Bitcoin Price Breaking This Confluence Resistance Could Spark Major Surge

In these cycles, the LTH RP crossed above the STH RP as the late-bear began. The implication of such a crossover is that coins recently bought (in the last 155 days) are now more profitable than those bought a long time ago. This shows that the market has gone through a deep capitulation event.

During the current bear market, however, the crypto is yet to see any such crossover, even after already observing 10 months of decline.

The post crossover bear period lasted for 339 days in 2014-15, while it was 145 days for 2018-19. This would suggest that the current bear will still have a while to go before a bull market can start as the crossover hasn’t even happened yet.

The report notes that at the pace the two metrics are approaching each other, this cross will likely take place this month.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $22.5k, up 13% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 7% in value.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the value of the crypto has been going up during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Hans-Jurgen Mager on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
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Keshav Verma
Keshav Verma

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Read more

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
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