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Breaking News: FTX Recovery Trust Set To Disburse $1.6 Billion By Month-End, FTT Price Skyrockets

How This Bitcoin Bull Run’s Momentum Is “So Different” From The Last

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
1 year ago
3 mins read
bitcoin bullish bull momentum macd

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Bitcoin’s halving is now in the past, and stock-to-flow formulas predict that the asset is ready to rocket out from current lows. But that’s yet to happen, and the crypto market is even crashing currently.

Here’s how this bull market is shaping up to have much “different” momentum this time around, according to one pseudonymous trader. According to the analyst and their theory on lengthening Bitcoin cycles, the slower momentum matches up precisely. Is this a sign that the stock-to-flow model is nonsense, and instead cycles are lengthening regardless of the halving?

Bitcoin Bull Markets Are Losing Momentum, But That’s Not Bad

The cryptocurrency market on daily and weekly timeframes has had plenty of momentum behind it, helping to propel Bitcoin to a new 2020 high. Ethereum and most other altcoins followed, surging and setting new local highs.

But a selloff has begun, suggesting that the ultra-hot crypto market will be cooling off again for some time. If prices drop much further or remain sideways for an extended period, it would seriously call into question all supply-based theories such as the highly-referenced stock-to-flow model.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Breaks Below $11,000, How Deep Will The Selloff Go?

The S2F model created by Plan B looks at the cryptocurrency’s digital scarcity and block reward reductions called halvings that occur every four years.

The idea is that as supply is reduced from each halving, the value of Bitcoin should rise exponentially as a result. But the cryptocurrency is back trading in the $10,000s after spending only a month or so over $10,000 for the first time since 2019.

In 2019, crypto analysts expected new all-time highs, and the same exuberance is filling the crypto market with high hopes for 2020. But the rug may have just been pulled, and another similar fall like last year could put an end to supply-based theories for good.

But Bitcoin slowing down and losing some momentum isn’t a bad thing. Like 2019, getting too overheated can result in an extended drawdown. Bitcoin correcting now rather than in another $5,000 or so, may be a far healthier climb in the long run.

bitcoin bull run momentum macd

BTCUSD Monthly MACD Bull Market Momentum Comparison | Source: TradingView

How Less Momentum Could Lead Cryptocurrency To Lengthening Market Cycles

As for how long that run may take, it could be a lot longer due to the waning momentum. That’s not to say that Bitcoin’s momentum isn’t strong, it just hasn’t anywhere near as strong as past bull market cycles.

According to crypto analyst Dave the Wave, the MACD on monthly timeframes has far less momentum behind it than past cycles.

This observance lends credence to the lengthening cycle theory that’s recently been picking up more steam the longer it takes for the crypto asset to moon.

Related Reading | Shock & Awe: Bitcoin Losing Momentum Could Result in Elliot Wave Correction to $1,000

Less overall momentum means a slower, healthier climb, and Bitcoin having a greater chance of becoming a stable, store of wealth in the long term. For now, the disruptive technology isn’t well adopted enough for volatility to decrease, but lengthening theories suggest this volatility – and momentum – decreasing over time will lead to a longer time between each new peak.

Chart comparisons between each Bitcoin cycle, show that there is a clear trend toward lengthening. Yes, the cryptocurrency also rose significantly out of each halving, but there’s currently far more evidence supporting lengthening cycles, including the MACD exhibiting far less momentum than past bull markets.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

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