Near Record-Breaking Low Volatility Could Precede a Bitcoin Bull Run

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 7:38 am

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

Bitcoin, according to one economist, is the fastest and highest rising asset of all time, thanks in part to its speculative nature, near endless potential, and to the built-in difficulty adjustment that throws off supply and demand balance which in turn increases Bitcoin price.

Due to these factors, the digital asset often experiences massive volatility, with 50% or higher price changes within one month being somewhat the norm for the first ever cryptocurrency. However, Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight trading range, which according to historical data, is on track to break records for the least volatile month on record.

Bitcoin Trades Between a 7.8% Range In March 2019, Monthly Candle Close Important

There is much debate between crypto bears and bulls alike, on if the bottom of the current bear market is in. After falling from its all-time high of $20,000, Bitcoin ping-ponged between lowering overhead resistance, and seemingly unbreakable support at roughly $6,000.

On November 2018, all that changed, and Bitcoin had a violent fall to the current trading range it is now in. Since then, the king of cryptocurrencies has experienced a period of stability that is uncommon for the emerging asset class.

During the month of March, BTC has traded within a narrow trading range of just 7.8%. The drop from over $6,000 to the low of $3,150 represents nearly a 50% drop for comparison sake. While most other assets would be seen as highly profitable with a 7.8 percent change in just one month, the stability is rare for Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/Daemon_Crypto/status/1110392768050814976

The 7.8% trading range, according to MarketWatch, could soon break the record for the tightest trading range in the history of Bitcoin, if March’s monthly candle closes within the current 7.8% range. All eyes will be watching the candle close, and traders are expecting fireworks.

Low Volatility Leads to Bull Runs, According to Prominent Crypto Analyst

Murad Mahmodov, a prominent crypto analyst, told MarketWatch that volatility is a neutral sign, and “low-volatility periods in BTC have always preceded prolonged bull runs, especially after capitulation moments of high momentum as seen in November and December.”

The last period of extended low volatility was during the 2014-2015 bear market, when BTC crashed from over $1,000 down to $200. The drop percentage-wise is very similar to the 84% drop Bitcoin experienced during this current bear-bull cycle following the break of its parabolic advance in 2017.

Bottom Q2 2019
No Bull Run till Q2 2020

— Murad (@MustStopMurad) February 10, 2019

Stability is necessary for Bitcoin to ever become the global currency many position it as, and the long-term logarithmic growth chart suggests that as Bitcoin’s price rises towards its ultimate destination, stability should become commonplace and volatility should disappear from the asset.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.