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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested that the highly anticipated Altseason isn’t here yet as most altcoins continue bleeding, while some market watchers consider the worst might be over soon.
CZ Says There’s No Altseason Yet
On Friday, Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, responded to an X user asking when the Altseason will happen. The Binance founder pointed out the price tracking and market data website CoinMarketCap (CMC), which recently added an “Altcoin Season Index.”
CZ highlighted that “of the top 100 altcoins,” very few have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in the past three months, suggesting that the Altseason won’t happen yet.
As the website states, the CMC Altcoin Season Index page “provides real-time insights into whether the cryptocurrency market is currently in Altcoin Season,” based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins against the flagship crypto over the past 90 days.
Under this metric, an Altseason is in if 75% of the top 100 altcoins outperform BTC during the established period. To CZ, “This is a tough ranking system,” as he considers that 50 would be a good score for Altcoins.
The CMC index page shows a score of 14/100, with only 14 altcoins outperforming BTC since early December. Some of the tokens in this list include Monero (XRM), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Pi (PI), Mantra (OM), Berachain (BERA), and the official Trump memecoin (TRUMP).
Leading cryptocurrencies of 2024, like SUI and Solana (SOL), show 37% to 41% price decreases in the past 90 days. Meanwhile, memecoin sensations like dogwifhat (WIF), PEPE, FLOKI, and BONK have bled between 70% and 80% during this period.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe also noted that altcoins have had an overall negative performance on higher timeframes despite some recent price rallies. “Massive green day on some Altcoins, they are up 2%! Then, you zoom out, and you zoom out, and you zoom out,” he asserted.
Altcoins Bottom Could Be Near
Altcoin Sherpa stated that altcoins were in “about the same or worse” positions during the Summer 2024 retrace, pointing out that “things were also pretty bleak overall and then we saw some strong bounces in August.” However, he noted that, unlike last year, the market doesn’t have a “Trump Pump coming.”
Recently, some of the top cryptocurrencies saw a significant price increase after US President Donald Trump announced a strategic reserve that would include SOL, XRP, Cardano (ADA), Ethereum (ETH), and BTC.
Nonetheless, after the March 6 executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a “Digital Asset Stockpile,” the White House AI and Crypto Czar, David Sacks, clarified that the previously named altcoins were used as references for the most valuable tokens in the market.
Sherpa considers that the market’s bottom is close, but “we still also probably have the chop period to get through” before any substantial recovery.
On the contrary, some industry figures have also commented on altcoins’ overall performance this cycle, suggesting that the Altseason already started but will be different from previous cycles.
Recently, CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, stated that the Altseason had begun. He affirmed there will not be a direct Bitcoin-to-altcoins rotation this cycle, as BTC dominance isn’t the key metric that defines it.
To the CEO, trading volume is the metric that defines it this time. Ju also pointed out that this will be a very selective and challenging altseason, with only a few altcoins with strong narratives expected to thrive.
