Preview Of The Peak: November Rains Red For Bitcoin Holders

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Last Updated: June 11, 2024 2:00 pm

3 mins read

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Bitcoin price is struggling to maintain support at $60,000, having fallen more than 15% from the local record set earlier this month.

But could the November rain storm that has resulted in a short-term bloodbath in crypto, be merely the final shakeout before the cycle peak is in? And could past cycles provide a preview of what this sort of scenario looks like? Let’s take a closer look.

November Selloff Puts Four-Year Cycle Theory At Risk

History is often said to repeat. Markets are also highly cyclical in their behavior. Within each cycle there are also matching harmonics that appear to rhyme without a ton of reason.

That’s why price action often produces fractals that appear to match patterns from the past. The entire basis of technical analysis is the study of historical chart performance with the goal of predicting future outcomes.

But a current example playing out in Bitcoin price could prove once and for all if there is real weight to the four-year cycle theory based on the cryptocurrency’s hard-coded halving event.

Could November 2017 (left) be a preview of what's to come in 2021 (right)?  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Will Bitcoin Price Follow The 2017 Finale Fractal?

The chart above is a comparison between current day Bitcoin price action and the Relative Strength Index. If the leading crypto by market cap can hold here and rebound to new highs, a bullish divergence will confirm and continue the building parabola.

What’s striking about this setup, is that there is only four days difference between when this same behavior appeared just four years ago. Both times after making new highs, Bitcoin saw a mid-November correction – but what comes next then? Does price action follow the same fractal with a dramatic December finale?

Despite the recent downside, the monthly technical picture began bullish, and could still close as such. But the excitement over new all-time highs to start the month led to too much leverage in the market, which was just cleansed, rinsed, and repeated.

Sentiment has also since swiftly switched, which could draw in enough short positions for a final squeeze higher – much like the abundance of longs led the market back to $60,000. The November selloff in 2017 reversed extremely quickly and only 30 days later saw a 250% price appreciation and the ultimate bull market peak. Is the chart above a chilling preview of what’s to come?

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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