XRP ETF At 83% Approval Odds—Is The SEC Losing Grip?

Christian Encila

1 month ago

2 mins read

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Investor optimism for a spot XRP ETF has climbed sharply. Based on Polymarket’s data, the odds of a green light sit at 83%. That figure comes even as the US Securities and Exchange Commission keeps pushing decisions back. Some industry watchers say the regulator simply uses its full review window.

Analyst Predictions And Timeline

According to Bloomberg’s James Seyffart, the SEC often takes the full 240 days to weigh 19b-4 filings. He pointed out that the agency asked for an extra 45 days on May 20 to rule on Bitwise’s Ether staking change, moving the deadline to May 22.

Based on his posts on X, almost all spot ETF bids now face final due dates in October. That makes any early summer approvals highly unlikely.

Spot Versus Futures Products

On May 19, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rolled out an XRP futures contract for the first time. A few days later, Volatility Shares listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq. Then Tectrium added a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF for those seeking more leverage.

These products let traders bet on XRP’s future price in a regulated setting. They are not the same as a spot ETF, but they signal growing interest among big investors.

XRP market cap currently at $137 billion. Chart: TradingView.com

Institutional Access Through ETFs

Based on reports, Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, spoke on the company’s podcast about why ETFs matter. He said ETFs let Wall Street buy crypto without wrestling with exchanges or private wallets.

He highlighted that the Bitcoin ETF hit $1 billion in assets faster than any other, and then reached $10 billion on record. That track record, he argued, paves the way for similar products tied to XRP.

XRP price up in the last seven days. Source: Coingecko

Market Outlook And Caution

According to SEC filings and industry chatter, delays are normal. The commission has already postponed decisions on Grayscale’s XRP tracking fund and a Solana ETF.

Analysts warn that odds in prediction markets can shift wildly. An 83% chance today could drop if the SEC raises new questions or requests another comment period. Investors should keep an eye on the calendar as October approaches.

Excitement And Patience

The buzz around an XRP spot ETF reflects real excitement, but history shows regulators move slowly. Futures ETFs like XRPI offer one path into XRP’s market, yet they come with quirks like contango and premium swings. For now, institutions and retail traders alike will watch the SEC’s deadlines with keen interest—and maybe a bit of patience.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView

Christian Encila

They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that's not just a metaphor, it's a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian's journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling - right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he's one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian's all work and no play? Not a chance! When he's not at his computer, you'll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian's got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here's the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day - and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors - and bosses - he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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