Stellar (XLM) Breakout Eyes 30% Rally – Will It Repeat Last Cycle’s Playbook?

Rubmar Garcia

Last Updated: May 10, 2025 8:00 am

3 mins read

Litecoin, Aptos, Polkadot, SUI, chainlink, Stellar

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After breaking out of its five-month downtrend, an analyst suggests a repeat of Stellar (XLM)’s last cycle playbook could be on the horizon. The cryptocurrency has confirmed its breakdown from a bullish reversal pattern and eyes a surge toward new targets

Stellar Breakout Targets $0.39

Amid the market pump, Stellar has broken out of a key demand zone and retested the $0.30 mark for the first time since March. The cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since its November 2024 breakout, when it reached a three-year high of $0.63.

During this year’s retraces, XLM dropped 68% from the highs to a five-month low of $0.20. However, the late-April market recovery saw the cryptocurrency surge above the downtrend and attempt to confirm the breakout after recording a weekly close above the $0.28 mark.

On Friday, Stellar has reclaimed the $0.29 resistance and retested the $0.30 mark for the first time in nearly two months. Following today’s performance, Ali Martinez pointed out that Stellar is breaking out of a two-month inverse head and Shoulder pattern.

This pattern is a bullish reversal setup that suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Earlier this week, the analyst pointed out that the pattern’s right shoulder was forming and the neckline sat around the $0.29 mark.

According to his post, a breakout from this formation potentially eyed a 30% rally toward the $0.39 resistance, lost during the February retraces.

XLM To Repeat Historical Tendencies?

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency confirmed the end of its multi-month downtrend and a breakout from its Downtrending Channel.

Per the post, if XLM weekly closes above its key area, between $0.27-$0.29, any dips into this zone would figure as a successful reclaim of the area as support to support a move to higher regions.

The analyst explained that reclaiming the $0.27-$0.29 area is crucial because it is a “historical demand region on the monthly timeframe.” In the past, turning this zone into support during bull markets has enabled Stellar to rally toward the $0.37-$0.40 mark.

In 2021, the cryptocurrency rallied toward its cycle high of $0.80 after retesting the key demand zone and breaking out of the $0.37 barrier. Similarly, it hit its all-time high (ATH) of $0.87 after a breakout from this area.

If XLM repeats history and rallies to the next resistance, it must reclaim and confirm that level to continue with its historical tendencies. “As such, a reclaim could see XLM challenge the $0.52 blue highs over time,” Rekt Capital concluded.

Meanwhile, analyst CW has noted that after breaking the upper line of the downtrend channel, Stellar would encounter resistance in two selling walls, one between the $0.34-$0.38 levels, and a big one around the $0.47-$0.70 zone.

As of this writing, Stellar trades at $0.296, a 2% increase in the daily timeframe.

Stellar, XLM, XLMUSDT — XLM’s performance in the one-week chart. Source: XLMUSDT on TradingView

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Rubmar Garcia

Rubmar is a writer and translator who has been a crypto enthusiast for the past four years. Her goal as a writer is to create informative, complete, and easily understandable pieces accessible to those entering the crypto space. After learning about cryptocurrencies in 2019, Rubmar became curious about the world of possibilities the industry offered, quickly learning that financial freedom was at the palm of her hand with the developing technology.

From a young age, Rubmar was curious about how languages work, finding special interest in wordplay and the peculiarities of dialects. Her curiosity grew as she became an avid reader in her teenage years. She explored freedom and new words through her favorite books, which shaped her view of the world. Rubmar acquired the necessary skills for in-depth research and analytical thinking at university, where she studied Literature and Linguistics. Her studies have given her a sharp perspective on several topics and allowed her to turn every stone in her investigations.

In 2019, she first dipped her toes in the crypto industry when a friend introduced her to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but it wasn’t until 2020 that she started to dive into the depth of the industry. As Rubmar began to understand the mechanics of the crypto sphere, she saw a new world yet to be explored.

At the beginning of her crypto voyage, she discovered a new system that allowed her to have control over her finances. As a young adult of the 21st century, Rubmar has faced the challenges of the traditional banking system and the restrictions of fiat money.

After the failure of her home country’s economy, the limitations of traditional finances became clear. The bureaucratic, outdated structure made her feel hopeless and powerless amid an aggressive and distorted system created by hyperinflation. However, learning about decentralization and self-custody opened a realm of opportunities. Cryptocurrencies allowed her to experience financial control for the first time and expand her financial education.

Moreover, the peculiar nature of the crypto community sparked Rubmar’s curiosity about the other layers of the industry. As a result, she found a particular interest in discovering the diverse perspectives of investors, market watchers, experts, and developers. Her attempts to better understand the crypto space made her realize the strong links of the community with other industries, enriching her perspective of the sector. As someone who spends most of her day online, Rubmar enjoys finding the points where the crypto world meets with her other passions and hobbies –or her favorite memes.

In her free time, she usually finds joy in different art forms. As a child, she enlisted in every extra-curricular activity in her hometown, including music classes, dancing, jewelry making, and the local chorus. Despite her many attempts to learn different instruments, Rubmar only knows how to play the xylophone, which she played for 7 years in her school’s marching band.

She also has a passion for learning new languages and cultures, having set the goal to learn another six languages – currently attempting to learn Italian and Korean. Scrapbooking, paper crafting, and bookbinding are her biggest interests outside of work, constantly taking classes and attending workshops to learn new techniques. The rest of her free time is spent stressing over football matches and transfer market news or feeding cats –hers or stray.

In summary, Rubmar seeks to present entertaining and educational pieces to be enjoyed by everybody, aiming to report on the latest news and offer a unique perspective while adding a meme or a pun whenever possible.

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