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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

These Key Levels And Dates Could Invalidate Bitcoin’s Stock-To-Flow Model

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
4 years ago
3 mins read
bitcoin stock to flow

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At this point following Bitcoin’s halving, expectations were that the cryptocurrency’s price would be a lot higher. This expectation is primarily due to Plan B’s stock-to-flow model – a valuation method based on the asset’s digital scarcity.

But before anyone writes off the theory as invalid, another analyst has provided key levels and dates to watch for, which would prove the model invalid if not reached in time. Here are the most important dates and levels critical to this valuation method remaining accurate.

Belief In Plan B’s Stock-To-Flow Model Is Beginning To Wane

“$50K by May 2020” was a commonly heard target all throughout 2019. That price target made the cryptocurrency’s mid-2019 rise to $14,000 all the more believable that a new bull run was beginning.

But $14,000 came and went, resulting in another repeated trip back to below $4,000 on Black Thursday. Now, Bitcoin is back retesting highs from last year but has since been unable to retest the 2019 top, nor its 2017 all-time high.

Related Reading | “Weak Hands” Have Been Shaken Out On The Bitcoin Crash To $10,000

Is this weakness, or the calm before the storm? The one thing holding out hope, however, for crypto investors, is the influence of the asset’s halving – an impact still not fully reflected in price action.

It was the halving during past cycles that sent the asset’s price parabolic and to record highs. This time around, however, Bitcoin hasn’t at all reacted the same.

There’s been no post-halving death spiral, no taking off like a rocket due to miners suddenly holding, and the price is nowhere close to the $50K by May target.

Several targets remain based on this model, which one analyst claims that if Bitcoin doesn’t reach, will prove Plan B’s model invalid, and leave no argument behind.

bitcoin btcusd s2f invalidation

BTCUSD Monthly S2F Invalidation Level and Date Example Chart | Source: TradingView

Bitcoin S2F Invalidation Levels And Dates To Watch For, According To Analyst

According to one crypto analyst presenting a possible argument against Plan B’s S2F model and all its updates. Three distinct levels and dates are given for each of the three variations of the S2F model.

The model has been adjusted to account for Satoshi’s coins, among other reasons. In the above chart, each invalidation level is clear.

For the “OG” original S2F model to prove invalid, Bitcoin would need to trade below $20K in May 2021, below $30K in September 2021, or below $50K in January 2022.

The next nut to crack is the updated S2F model, matching the first date and level at $20K, but upping the ante to $40K in September 2021. That leaves a target of $80K in time for January 2022. Any trading below these prices will crush the expectations around these theories.

Related Reading | This Unique Perspective Makes It Clear Bitcoin Cycles Are Lengthening

The highest valuation version, the S2FX model, changes the invalidation targets to $30K in May 2021, $90K by September 2021, and $200K or more come January 2022.

Even with how rapid Bitcoin rises due to its scarcity, could it really rally from $10,000 currently, to as much as $200,000 in less than two years? That’s about the same amount of time it took for Bitcoin to rise from $1,000 to $20,000, so it is not impossible.

However, if any of those price levels aren’t reached, other theories, such as lengthening cycles based on an adoption curve will become far more compelling and believable. If that’s the case in the end, and the halving isn’t all its cracked up to be, it could be a long while until the next cycle peak.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

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Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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