At this point following Bitcoin’s halving, expectations were that the cryptocurrency’s price would be a lot higher. This expectation is primarily due to Plan B’s stock-to-flow model – a valuation method based on the asset’s digital scarcity.
But before anyone writes off the theory as invalid, another analyst has provided key levels and dates to watch for, which would prove the model invalid if not reached in time. Here are the most important dates and levels critical to this valuation method remaining accurate.
Belief In Plan B’s Stock-To-Flow Model Is Beginning To Wane
“$50K by May 2020” was a commonly heard target all throughout 2019. That price target made the cryptocurrency’s mid-2019 rise to $14,000 all the more believable that a new bull run was beginning.
But $14,000 came and went, resulting in another repeated trip back to below $4,000 on Black Thursday. Now, Bitcoin is back retesting highs from last year but has since been unable to retest the 2019 top, nor its 2017 all-time high.
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Is this weakness, or the calm before the storm? The one thing holding out hope, however, for crypto investors, is the influence of the asset’s halving – an impact still not fully reflected in price action.
It was the halving during past cycles that sent the asset’s price parabolic and to record highs. This time around, however, Bitcoin hasn’t at all reacted the same.
There’s been no post-halving death spiral, no taking off like a rocket due to miners suddenly holding, and the price is nowhere close to the $50K by May target.
Several targets remain based on this model, which one analyst claims that if Bitcoin doesn’t reach, will prove Plan B’s model invalid, and leave no argument behind.
BTCUSD Monthly S2F Invalidation Level and Date Example Chart | Source: TradingView
Bitcoin S2F Invalidation Levels And Dates To Watch For, According To Analyst
According to one crypto analyst presenting a possible argument against Plan B’s S2F model and all its updates. Three distinct levels and dates are given for each of the three variations of the S2F model.
The model has been adjusted to account for Satoshi’s coins, among other reasons. In the above chart, each invalidation level is clear.
For the “OG” original S2F model to prove invalid, Bitcoin would need to trade below $20K in May 2021, below $30K in September 2021, or below $50K in January 2022.
The next nut to crack is the updated S2F model, matching the first date and level at $20K, but upping the ante to $40K in September 2021. That leaves a target of $80K in time for January 2022. Any trading below these prices will crush the expectations around these theories.
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The highest valuation version, the S2FX model, changes the invalidation targets to $30K in May 2021, $90K by September 2021, and $200K or more come January 2022.
Even with how rapid Bitcoin rises due to its scarcity, could it really rally from $10,000 currently, to as much as $200,000 in less than two years? That’s about the same amount of time it took for Bitcoin to rise from $1,000 to $20,000, so it is not impossible.
However, if any of those price levels aren’t reached, other theories, such as lengthening cycles based on an adoption curve will become far more compelling and believable. If that’s the case in the end, and the halving isn’t all its cracked up to be, it could be a long while until the next cycle peak.