This Tool Has Called Nearly Every Bitcoin Top, And It Just Triggered Again

Tony "The Bull" Severino

4 years ago

4 mins read

bitcoin top td sequential indicator btcusd btcusdt

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Things have been looking up for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is currently the best-performing mainstream asset of 2020 so far, beating out the record-breaking gold rally, the stock market recovery, and anything else.

But the top in Bitcoin could be in, according to an indicator that has accurately called nearly ever major top in the first-ever cryptocurrency’s entire history. If the indicator is correct once again, not only is the rally over, but an extended decline could be next.

Bitcoin 2020 Peak Could Already Be In, According To Indicator And Price Momentum

Bitcoin has been extremely bullish following its plunge on Black Thursday. The narrative of the dollar’s demise have only further fueled the cryptocurrency’s perfect storm rally, coinciding with the asset’s halving, and a breakout into a new bull market.

Even resistance above $10,000, the gatekeeper to FOMO, is now wide open. It let bulls run Bitcoin price all the way up to $12,400 for the 2020 high.

But could that high be it for the year? It doesn’t mean the uptrend is over, however, an ominous and highly accurate signal that has in the past almost perfectly called all of Bitcoin’s most important tops, just triggered again.

In the past, extended pullbacks following this high timeframe signal lasted as long as six months or more. This could suggest that another, less severe downtrend is next, and it could last until the end of the year.

BTCUSD Two-Week TD Sequential 2020 | Source: TradingView

The signal is the TD Sequential 9 “sell” setup, on the two-week timeframe. The not-often-used timeframe could be an ace up the sleeves of analysts who watch the indicator for signals to appear.

These signals don’t happen often due to how long each candle takes to close, but when they do, it often means the top is in.

BTCUSD Two-Week TD Sequential 2019-2020 | Source: TradingView

High Timeframe TD Sequential Signals Top Is In, Historically Proven To Be Accurate

As is pictured above, the last time this sell signal appeared, it marked the June 2019 top perfectly. Bitcoin price never went higher than that candle, and a nearly nine-month-long downtrend followed after just three months of explosive uptrend.

This latest uptrend, has lasted from mid-March through August, slightly more than the rally in 2019. But now the signal has appeared once again.

The signal is accurate, but not perfect. And the rare instances it triggered a candle or two before the top was in, it was still close. One such instance was at the top at $20,000. The signal appeared a full two candles prior to the peak.

BTCUSD Two-Week TD Sequential 2017-2019 | Source: TradingView

Crypto bubble FOMO proved to be just too strong at the time for the signal to confirm. When it did, the asset had pumped much higher.

Still, a track record of almost perfectly calling the last two major tops shows just how reliable the tool can be for market timing. The TD Sequential was created by market timing expert, Thomas Demark.

It watched for a specific sequence of candles and conditions, before triggering a signal. New highs on the last candle “perfect” setups, making them even more likely to confirm.

BTCUSD Two-Week TD Sequential 2014-2016 | Source: TradingView

These same, two-week-timeframe 9 “sell” setups have appeared for years and years of Bitcoin price action. It marked the peak in 2014, and again in 2016 at the last major pullback before the bull market began in 2017.

Bitcoin price could be at a similar moment in its four-year cycle. A similar trajectory was shown to take the asset all the way to $325,000 at the next peak. But not before a selloff, it seems.

Dating back even further, to 2013, we can see yet another 2017-style anomaly where it missed the top by two candles too early.

BTCUSD Two-Week TD Sequential 2012-2013 | Source: TradingView

But before that, it yet again almost perfect called the top as early as 2012. With a track record dating back almost ten years of Bitcoin price action accuracy, the TD Sequential on two-week timeframes could be considered one of the most accurate top-sniping signals going.

Other top-spotting signals are also triggering on Bitcoin, just as the dollar begins to reverse. Is Bitcoin’s rally over for some time?

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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