Will Record Low Volatility Awaken A Behemoth Bitcoin Surge? 4,000% Signal Returns

Tony "The Bull" Severino

1 year ago

2 mins read

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Bitcoin price has been ranging around $30,000 for most of 2023, taking even the highest timeframes down to a record low volatility state — something highly unusual for cryptocurrencies.

As a result, Historical Volatility in the 6W BTCUSD chart has fallen to the second lowest ever reading. The last time this signal appeared, it awakened a behemoth rally.
Prices soared in the short- and long-term. Keep reading to find out by how much.

Low Volatility Suggests Behemoth Bitcoin Rally Could Be Coming

NewsBTC has extensively covered the lack of volatility in Bitcoin using the Bollinger Bands. The Bollinger Bands are part of a trend-following, band-breakout trading system that also can be used to measure volatility.

But it’s not the only way to read it. Other volatility metrics include Implied Volatility, which uses the VIX to potentially predict future volatility, and Historical Volatility (HV). HV, just like it sounds, looks at volatility from the past.

The 6W Historical Volatility in BTCUSD is now at its second-lowest level ever. This is important because when an extended sideways phase ends, it ends by awakening a monster rally or decline.

Historical Volatility is the second lowest ever | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Is Another Monster 4,000% Move In BTCUSD Possible

Considering it’s only happened once before, the sample size is too small to come to a conclusion about which direction prices might head. However, the last time the 6W Historical Volatility got this low, and then broke out, the direction was up.

Not only was it up, but it was an immediate more than 60% move higher in a single 6W candle. The move that began around March 2016 also kicked off a more than year-long bull market that ended with more than 4,000% ROI following the period of inactivity.

The power of volatility once it returns to an asset long trending sideways cannot be understated. Another 4,000% is unlikely after seven years of adoption, but something massive is waking up regardless of the final numbers and direction.

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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