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XRP began April sitting above the key support level at about $1.30, yet the token remains well below where it opened the year. Historically, however, April has been one of altcoin’s strongest months, and a mix of on-chain data and a potentially decisive legislative event this month could result in a new turnaround.
What Past Aprils Say About This Year’s Odds
Market analyst Sam Daodu laid out the historical performance in a new report, noting that since 2014 April has produced an average return of 24.8% for XRP. On that metric, a rally of similar size from the current level near $1.34 would lift the price back above $1.60.
But Daodu cautioned that the headline average masks a different reality: the median April return is only 2%. That gap shows that most Aprils see modest movement while a few outsized rallies push the average much higher.
Notable “big-April years” include the 2021 post‑Halving surge — when XRP jumped from roughly $0.30 to $1.96 — and the 2017–2018 altcoin runs when April gains topped 50% in some cycles. Remove those extreme years, and April’s typical gain falls to single digits.
Daodu singled out April 2025 as the most analogous comparison for 2026. In that month, XRP was already sliding when an announcement of sweeping tariffs pushed prices lower on April 2; XRP fell from about $2.00 to $1.60, and the month closed in the red, derailing the historical pattern.
Yet that $1.60 low proved critical — it became the exact pivot for an 82% surge that carried XRP to $3.65 by mid‑July. Daodu points out that even when April fails to produce immediate gains, it can still be the turning point for the rest of the year.
Potential Catalysts And Risks For XRP
This April also presents a new potential catalyst not seen in prior years. The Senate returns from its Easter recess on April 13, and the Senate Banking Committee has indicated a window in the latter half of the month for markup on the CLARITY Act.
If the bill advances through committee, it would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law — a change that, according to the analyst, could remove a major obstacle to institutional capital entering the market.
On-chain data shows a marked increase in Binance outflows since late February, which could further support a new recovery. Daily withdrawals have repeatedly exceeded 4,000 XRP, with some sessions approaching 6,000 — a behaviour that is often seen as a sign of accumulation.
Still, on‑chain strength and a favorable legislative calendar may be insufficient to overcome macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
Oil prices have risen above $100 a barrel, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady, and Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $66,000 — factors that have tended to suppress risk appetite across crypto markets.
Daodu notes that crypto-specific positives this year have repeatedly been overshadowed by broader geopolitical headwinds and inflation data, and warns that an escalation in the Middle East could erase any April gains.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
