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XRP is trying to reclaim the $1.15 level after a decline that carried the price to its lowest point since 2024 — a drop that has erased months of recovery progress and left holders navigating a market structure that offers little immediate clarity on direction. The price is attempting a bounce — and an Arab Chain analysis tracking Binance volume activity has identified a signal in the trading data that adds important context to both the recent decline and the current recovery attempt.
The XRP Volume Z-Score on Binance — which measures how far current trading activity deviates from the 30-day average — surged to approximately 4.5 points in recent days, its highest reading in four months. A Z-Score at that level describes trading activity running dramatically above the recent baseline — the kind of volume surge that typically accompanies significant price events, forced liquidations, or large-scale repositioning by major participants.
The surge was short-lived. The index retreated sharply from the 4.5 peak and has since fallen to approximately -0.70 — a reading that places current trading activity below the 30-day average rather than above it. The exceptional activity spike appeared, drove the price action, and then dissipated as quickly as it arrived.
Arab Chain’s analysis examines what the sequence — sharp volume surge followed by rapid normalization — reveals about the nature of the recent XRP decline and whether the current recovery attempt has the trading activity behind it to sustain above $1.15.
Volume Spiked While the Price Fell
The Arab Chain analysis connects the volume surge directly to the price decline. Clarifying the nature of the selling that drove XRP to its lowest level since 2024. The Z-Score reaching 4.5 points while the price was falling to approximately $1.13 describes a specific market dynamic. Elevated participant activity concentrated on the sell side rather than the buy side. Driving volume higher precisely because transactions were being executed at scale in the downward direction.
Binance XRP Volume Z-Score | Source: CryptoQuant
The analytical interpretation the report applies is straightforward. A sharp rise in trading volumes alongside a price decline typically signals one of two conditions. Accelerated selling pressure from participants choosing to exit at whatever price the market offers, or large-scale repositioning as significant holders restructure their XRP exposure in response to changing market conditions. Both produce the same observable outcome — volume spikes while price falls — but carry different implications for what follows.
The volatility context the analysis identifies is the forward-looking element worth monitoring. Elevated volume activity coinciding with sharp price movements has historically been followed by continued volatility rather than immediate stabilization. The repositioning or selling that drove the initial volume surge tends to create aftershocks as the market adjusts to the new supply-and-demand balance established by the high-volume session.
XRP, attempting to reclaim $1.15 in the aftermath of a 4.5 Z-Score volume event, is attempting recovery in a market structure that has just been fundamentally repriced. And the speed at which volume normalized below the 30-day average suggests the exceptional activity has completed rather than paused.
XRP Price Testing Fresh Lows
XRP is attempting to stabilize around the $1.15 level after one of its deepest corrections since the 2024 breakout. The weekly chart shows that sellers have erased nearly all of the gains generated during the first half of 2025. Pushing the asset back toward a critical long-term support zone.
XRP testing the 200-week SMA | Source: XRPUSDT chart on TradingView
The most important technical development is XRP’s test of the 200-week moving average, currently sitting around $1.10–$1.15. Historically, this moving average has acted as a major trend-defining level. And the current weekly candle is attempting to hold above it despite the recent wave of selling pressure. Losing this level would significantly weaken the broader structure and expose XRP to a move toward the psychological $1.00 mark and potentially the $0.85–$0.90 region.
From a trend perspective, XRP remains bearish. Price trades below both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, while those averages continue sloping downward. The rejection from the $1.40–$1.50 area in recent weeks confirmed that sellers remain in control and that recovery attempts are still being sold into.
For bulls, reclaiming $1.30 and then $1.50 is necessary to begin rebuilding momentum. Until then, the focus remains on whether XRP can defend the 200-week moving average and prevent a deeper breakdown below $1.10.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
