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An analyst has sounded the alarm on what could become one of the most explosive rally in XRP’s history. As the cryptocurrency prepares for its long-awaited Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) debut, the balance of XRP on major exchanges continues to decline. Analysts are warning that an impending supply crisis could spark a significant surge in the XRP price, which is currently more than 34% below its all-time high levels.
XRP Supply Shortage To Trigger Parabolic Surge
Amidst ongoing market volatility and whale capitulation, crypto market expert Arthur remains positive about XRP, drawing attention to a series of on-chain developments that could mark the beginning of a parabolic upward move. In his post on X social media, the analyst emphasized that an XRP could soon see a supply crisis, which may ignite its next price explosion.
According to recent chart data from CryptoQuant, XRP reserves on Binance have fallen to about 2.79 million tokens, marking a sustained decline that began in early 2025. The chart also shows that while XRP’s price has remained relatively stable between $2 and $3, the available supply on almost all major cryptocurrency exchanges has continued to decline drastically. Arthur has revealed that this signals a growing imbalance between supply and demand, which could set the foundation for a bullish move.
Arthur has also referenced a prediction made by JPMorgan analysts, who estimated that between $4 to $8 billion could flow into the upcoming XRP Spot ETFs once they launch in the market. This projection indicates confidence in XRP’s future institutional demand and interest as a legitimate digital asset class. The analyst has suggested that increased ETF demand from institutions, combined with limited liquidity, could create a “perfect storm” for a price breakout of XRP.
Additionally, the analyst has revealed that the XRP ETF could also see a surge in retail demand, contributing to its projected price appreciation. Currently, reports indicate that approval of XRP Spot ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is still pending. However, prominent analysts like Nate Geraci remain confident that these investment products will be launched soon.
Binance XRP Reserve Data Shows Steady Losses
Delving deeper into XRP’s supply on exchanges, CryptoQuant’s data shows that the cryptocurrency’s reserve on Binance is sitting at approximately 2.785 billion tokens as of November 12, 2025. Notably, this marks a decrease of over 10 million tokens from the previous day, when 2.795 billion XRP was recorded. Since the beginning of November, Binance’s XRP balance has been declining, hovering just above the 2.7 billion token threshold.
Earlier in October, reserves dipped to 2.74 billion tokens, one of the lowest levels recorded in almost a year. While balances briefly rebounded in mid-October, the latest data shows a renewed downward trajectory, suggesting that selling pressure may have eased and accumulation could be taking place off exchanges.
