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Crypto pundit Zach Rector’s has published a bold projection that XRP could surge to $15 as soon as institutional inflows driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increasingly reshape market dynamics. In his analysis, Rector contends that the anticipated inflows from XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could transform the asset’s valuation landscape.
His projection is rooted in conservative assumptions and is underpinned by JPMorgan’s earlier forecasts, which suggested that XRP ETFs might secure between $4 billion and $8 billion in new capital during their first year. Rector centers his model on the lower $4 billion figure, arguing that even this modest amount could set the stage for a dramatic market cap expansion.
How High Can XRP Rise With A Spot ETF?
Central to his thesis is what he terms the “market cap multiplier.” This metric, which he describes as “the ratio of the change in an asset’s market capitalization to the net inflows it receives,” serves as the engine behind his bullish scenario. Rector elaborated on the concept during one of his presentations: “When you witness a short-term event where XRP’s market capitalization surges dramatically with relatively low inflows, it highlights how sensitive the valuation can be to capital entering the market.”
He illustrated this with a striking example from April 12, 2025. On that day, over the course of eight hours, XRP’s market cap increased by $7.74 billion even though the net inflows were only $12.87 million—a phenomenon that translated into an extraordinary multiplier of 601x. “That moment was a wake-up call,” Rector noted, “a clear demonstration of how leveraged the digital asset market can be under the right conditions.”
Despite this explosive example, Rector exercised caution by choosing a considerably more conservative multiplier of 200x for his primary analysis. With this multiplier, the $4 billion inflow assumption would generate an $800 billion increase in market capitalization. When added to XRP’s then-current market cap of roughly $125 billion, the theoretical total valuation climbs to nearly $925 billion.
Given an estimated circulating supply of 60 billion XRP tokens, this scenario would result in a per-token price close to $15. “Even a conservative read on market trends points to a level of appreciation that is nothing short of transformative,” Rector explained.
In discussing the underpinning assumptions, Rector was unequivocal about the limitations of his model. “Two things that are not included in this equation that do play a factor would be the futures market and then also the XRP ledger decentralized exchange activity,” he stated.
Beyond the technicalities of his multiplier methodology, the broader market context lends weight to Rector’s optimistic forecast. Institutional momentum is evident, as evidenced by a surge in regulatory filings for spot XRP ETFs. Nine prominent financial institutions—among them Grayscale, VanEck, Ark Invest, and WisdomTree—have sought approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
“The fact that established asset managers are stepping forward to file for an XRP ETF is a signal in itself,” Rector commented. The SEC’s acknowledgment of these filings, coupled with the buzz around the Ripple legal settlement, has bolstered market sentiment. “There’s a tangible sense of optimism in the air,” Rector added.
Notwithstanding the supportive environment, Rector remains measured in his outlook. He pointed to the underwhelming performance of Ethereum ETFs for context. Since their introduction in July 2024, Ethereum ETFs have only attracted about $2.28 billion in inflows. “This is a reminder that even with strong institutional interest, the transition from traditional finance to digital assets is not always straightforward,” Rector remarked.
International developments have further reinforced the narrative. In March 2025, Brazil took a significant step by approving a spot XRP ETF, while the NYSE Arca recently debuted Teucrium Investment Advisors’ leveraged XRP ETF. “Global regulatory acceptance is key,” Rector asserted, “and as more jurisdictions warm up to digital assets, we can expect a more vibrant and dynamic market.”
He concluded: “While no forecast is foolproof, the trends we are witnessing today suggest that a milestone like $15 per XRP isn’t just wishful thinking—it could very well be within reach.”
At press time, XRP traded at $2.14.
