$28.7K Could Be Next Level To Break For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Keshav Verma

1 year ago

3 mins read

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On-chain data suggests the $28,700 mark, which Bitcoin has yet to hit since the LUNA collapse, could be the next major obstacle to clear for the asset.

Bitcoin Has Been Under The $28,700 Level For 310 Days Now

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the $28,700 is the cost basis (that is, the acquisition price) of a specific whale group in the BTC market. The relevant indicator here is the “realized price,” a value derived from the realized cap, a capitalization model for Bitcoin.

Instead of taking the value of each coin in the circulating BTC supply the same as the current asset price, the realized cap assumes that the “actual” value of any coin is the price at which it was last transacted on the chain.

The realized price is obtained when this metric is divided by the total number of coins in circulation. As the realized cap accounted for the price at which holders bought their coins, that is to say, their cost basis, what the realized price signifies is the cost basis of the average investor in the market.

In the context of the current topic, the realized price has been applied to three whale cohorts to find their average acquisition prices. To better identify the price at which these whales first bought their coins, Glassnode has used their exchange withdrawal transactions as the point at which they acquired their Bitcoin (as exchanges are what holders generally use for buying purposes).

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price of these whale groups over the last couple of years:

The price seems to be approaching the highest of these levels | Source: Glassnode on Twitter

Whales have been put into these three groups based on the period they bought their coins. For example, the 12 March 2020 cohort includes all whales that have acquired their coins between now and then.

As shown in the above graph, the 5 July 2017 whale group has the lowest cost basis at $18,000, below which BTC was stuck during the lows after the FTX collapse. Sometime later, the coin attempted to put together a rise and get above this level, but it found rejection.

However, with the rally this year, BTC finally broke through this level. The rise continued until the cryptocurrency tested the 16 December 2018 whales’ cost basis of $23,800 and found resistance.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the asset struggled around this mark for a while until the sharp price surge of the past week took place, and the asset managed to clear this level.

Now, Bitcoin’s price is above the $28,000 mark, and the coin is fast approaching the cost basis of the final cohort, the 12 March 2020 whales. Given that the other two whale groups provided resistance to the price, it’s possible that the $28,700 cost basis of the last group could also cause trouble to the asset.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,000, up 9% in the last week.

Looks like BTC has mostly consolidated today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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