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There have been two differing opinions on where Bitcoin prices will go next. Some are calling for an imminent pullback and possible final capitulation while others are confident that this is the beginning of the new bull market and it will be all up from here on.
Major Similarities From 2015 Trend Reversal
Analyzing previous chart patterns and market movements offers a great insight into what could possibly play out next in the current situation. The charts from the 2014 – 2015 bear market and final trend reversal could almost be overlaid onto what has happened for the 2018 – 2019 situation.
There was a final capitulation in August 2015 when Bitcoin prices broke down to $200 for the second time that year. This marked a slump from a previous peak of over $1,100 which is around 82%. This time around the slump in December dropped prices to $3,200 which is around 84% down from the all-time high, all very familiar territory.
Since then we could almost say that the trend has reversed and that was the bottom. Bitcoin is currently up over 60% since its mid-December dump. Crypto markets in general have gained closer to 80% since their lowest levels late last year.
Those early charts foretold another capitulation though before the bull market really kicked in. A repeat of this could see Bitcoin slowly grind up to late $5,000s and hitting resistance before dumping back to the low $4,000s again.
Bitcoin after the low in 2015 and 2018.
Nothing outrageous is expected.
Except the bull market. But it is pretty normal. $BTC #bitcoin $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/ATdvm0aZK8— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) April 10, 2019
If that last dump is skipped as suggested by ‘CryptoHamster’ the bottom has definitely been in and we are on the way up from here on. Others predict that Bitcoin will test the 50 week moving average and pull back off it, returning to the 200 week MA as it did in 2015;
We were comparing the end of the 2015 bear market to what's happening today. We hit the 50MA got rejected, came back down to the 200MA then took off again. pic.twitter.com/C5zI5ptkk5
— SimplisticChartsJoe (SimplisticGainsLLC) (@CryptoChartsJoe) April 10, 2019
No Retest of December Lows
Crypto portfolio manager and chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management, Travis Kling, is also confident that there will be no dropping back to those low $3,000 prices, tweeting;
“In the 7 weeks leading up to April 1, the chances we would retest the lows of mid-Dec diminished significantly. The price action in the month of April, beginning with the massive move up April 1, essentially put the nail in the coffin for new lows. A retest is now highly unlikely,”
Either way the general sentiment for most of 2019 so far has been way better than 2018 where ‘crypto crash’ was one of the most popularly used terms to describe markets. At the time of writing Bitcoin had spent the best part of the past 24 hours trading above $5,200, level on the day. A clear uptrend has formed over the past week since the initial pump and a critical point will be reached at the end of this ascending triangle in a few days’ time when a major move is expected.
Image from Shutterstock
