Crypto Analytics Firm: Single Strategic Actor Responsible for Bitcoin Price Surge

Tony "The Bull" Severino

6 years ago

3 mins read

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The Bitcoin rally heard ‘round the world that began on April 2, 2019 painted the first higher high on Bitcoin price charts since the price of the leading cryptocurrency by market cap reached its all-time high back in December 2017. The powerful surge many believe could have signaled the end of the bear market and confirmed that a new uptrend has begun.

The over $1,000 rally may have also been the work of a single, calculated and strategic actor, who may have precisely executed a plan that drove the price up as much as possible.

CoinMetrics: Committed Actor Executed Trades At Key Times to Maximize Price Impact

The massive green candle that occurred on Bitcoin price charts on April 2 had everyone talking, from brokers, to bankers, and everyone in between. The powerfully bullish movement may have been the final blow to bears that signaled the end of the crypto winter that’s plagued the asset class throughout 2018 and 2019 thus up until now.

The move, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics, was orchestrated across multiple exchanges, at very specific times where liquidity is the lowest, in order to “maximize price impact while trading,” the firm said. More interesting is their theory that the entire thing was executed by one, single “committed actor.”

Our theory is that a single committed actor went long and traded in a manner that maximized price impact. The movement in price started at 04:30 UTC time, the point in the day where global liquidity is at a minimum.

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

CoinMetrics reveals that the price movement started at approximately at 04:30 UTC time, which the firm says it the “point in the day where global liquidity is at a minimum.”

“Although this cannot be known for sure, such trades would have been designed to trigger stop losses and force a short squeeze through liquidations of margin positions and short futures positions,” they added.

The large price movement on April 2, 2019 occurred during the window of lowest global liquidity. It began at 04:30 UTC and lasted until 05:30 UTC. This time may have been deliberately chosen so that a committed actor could maximize price impact when trading. pic.twitter.com/vktxpGBwlQ

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

The entire move lasted about one hour, ending at about 05:30 UTC. CoinMetrics further suggests that the time was “deliberately chosen” in order to create the most price movement possible in the shortest amount of time, maximizing “price impact.”

Here's a closer look at our three exchanges of interest pic.twitter.com/yFgxBG2EEM

— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

While conflicting reports across the web from various experts have suggested the move originated across three exchanges, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp, CoinMetrics instead claims the move began at HitBTC where roughly 500,000 Tether were traded for Bitcoin, then was followed by simultaneous buy orders executing on Coinbase and Bitfinex.

Other theories crypto analysts have offered have pointed to mistaken programmatic buying following an elaborate April fools prank. Bots did appear to influence the move, but only because the initial actor planned it that way, and took out stop loss orders that further caused a cascading effect, sending the price higher and higher. As the whale had planned, the trades had a significant impact – enough to potentially end the bear market and ignite a new crypto bull run.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.