Altcoin Trader: Alt Bitcoin Bear Cycle Almost Over, 600% Gains During Bull Cycle Expected

Tony "The Bull" Severino

6 years ago

3 mins read

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While Bitcoin has the entire crypto world watching in shock and awe as the seemingly unstoppable rally continues, its crypto cousins in the altcoin market have only further dropped relative to their BTC ratio.

However, according to previous altcoin/BTC bear cycles, an end to the carnage may be in sight. And once the bearish momentum eases up, the following uptrend has brought investors over 600% gains once altcoins join Bitcoin in a bull run.

Altcoin Bear Cycle Coming to a Close as Drawdown Nears Peak

Due to Bitcoin being paired with altcoins on most exchanges, the two crypto asset types have a closely tied relationship between one another, however, the relationship between altcoins and their big brother Bitcoin is a confusing one. At times, they rise and fall in a completely correlated way, while other times they appear to grow or decline inverse from one another.

As soon as Bitcoin broke through resistance at $4,200 at the start of April, causing the crypto asset to rally nearly 100% to over $8,300, altcoins diverged, and hard. While Bitcoin rose, most altcoins fell significantly in their ratios relative to BTC.

While Bitcoin has went on to set new yearly highs, altcoins continue to set new yearly lows in their BTC ratios. The total altcoin market cap drawdown has been 66.5% so far, according to experienced altcoin trader Nik Patel, who is the author of the book an Altcoin Trader’s Handbook.

Couple of fun facts:

– Of the previous 4 ALTBTC bear cycles, the average drawdown has been 69.7%. The current drawdown of this ALTBTC bear cycle is 66.5%.

– The average growth experienced across the past 5 ALTBTC bull cycles was 617%.

— Nik (@cointradernik) May 14, 2019

The trader says that during the four previous “ALTBTC bear cycles,” all have had an average drawdown of nearly 70% – a mere 3 and a half percentage points away from current levels. This could indicate that the selling pressure is almost exhausted, and that a new bull cycle could begin.

If and when a bull cycle does come to fruition in the alt market, according to the altcoin trading professional, the average growth experienced has resulted in bringing investors as much as 617% gains. Such gains would bring the price of Ethereum to over $1,200 and near its previous all-time high, and the price of Ripple to $2.40 cents per XRP. Litecoin would be priced at well over $500 per LTC.

Gains of such nature haven’t been witnessed in the crypto market since the start of 2018. After that, the market crashed and the longest bear market on record ensued. It’s only now that the early stages of a new bull market have started, with the first ever cryptocurrency Bitcoin leading the charge, that such growth in the market has started showing signs of life once again. If altcoins can rally similarly to Bitcoin from here, the crypto bull market will be back, and the price of cryptocurrencies could reach new all-time highs across the board.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.