Bitcoin has, to put it lightly, seen a helluva past 48 hours. On Wednesday night/Thursday morning, the BTC price plunged by nearly $600 out of nowhere, dropping the cryptocurrency to $9,600 from $10,150.
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Many traders immediately saw this as a sign that BTC was going to collapse lower, as it would have then resolved to the downside of a long-term descending triangle that has haunted bulls for months.
But, just as fast as Bitcoin plummeted, it rocketed back up. On Thursday, the cryptocurrency surged back through the key $10,000 support all the way to $10,300, managing to regain all the losses that it incurred just hours prior.
This confusing price action has left many traders stumped, wondering exactly what this odd bout of volatility implies for Bitcoin holders. According to a popular analyst, Bitcoin is decidedly in a bull trend, and shouldn’t fall much further should bears manage to take over.
Bitcoin Price Still in Strong Spot
According to CryptoKea, the worst-case scenario per his analysis of the Mayer Multiple (MM) — defined by putting BTC’s current price over its 200-day moving average — the “worst-case scenario” would see Bitcoin fall to a maximum of $9,200 over the next few days, no lower.
In an extensive Twitter thread that weighed on historical price action and trends, the analyst noted that he came to this conclusion by overlaying Bitcoin’s price action prior to the 2016 halving on the current chart, using MM readings to determine price ranges.
53/ UPDATE: Based on https://t.co/GMqRvPBltr, we have 226 days to go until the next halving (error in prior version: 144 days). So, how is BTC price in terms of Mayer Multiple (MM) doing compared to this time before halving 1 & 2?
Let´s have a closer look 👇@TraceMayer pic.twitter.com/VxrMIO00fk
— CryptoKea (@CryptoKea) September 19, 2019
His model shows that the “lows [could] be behind us in a few days”. Kea did admit that this wasn’t an explicit price prediction or target, but using historical analysis to determine Bitcoin’s trends has proven to be very useful in the past.
Kea isn’t the only one pointing towards the importance of the low-$9,000s. Prominent trader Josh Rager recently noted that the $9,400 support is a level of key importance, as BTC managed to bounce off it on three separate occasions.
The fact that Bitcoin didn’t sweep that low — or the one that Kea mentioned, for that matter — is a clear sign that bulls remain in control of the Bitcoin price, depends the critics asserting that the cryptocurrency is in somewhat of an “echo bubble”.
Not really worried unless price breaks and closes below $9400 again
This is the area to keep an eye on pic.twitter.com/dLRAht4DD4
— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) September 19, 2019
Willy Woo, a partner for Adaptive Capital and a prominent on-chain metrics analyst for Bitcoin, has also remained bullish. In a recent stream published to the channel of trader Tone Vays, Woo explained that he is still seeing that Bitcoin is in an “expansion” phase — which is often seen in bull markets, he proposes — not an unwinding of the January to June rally as some cynics have suggested.
Woo went on to point out that the Realized Price — an indicator effectively giving insight into how much the market pay for each Bitcoin — is currently looking much like it did during the early stages of the previous bull market.
History repeating would see a breakout to the upside in the coming months, one that could potentially bring BTC to trade on an order of magnitude about the 10,000s.
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