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Breaking News: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident

Bulls Beware: Last Bitcoin Downtrend Breakout Led To Bear Market Lows

Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino
5 years ago
2 mins read
bitcoin bulls downtrend

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Bitcoin bulls across the globe are currently rejoicing that the downtrend that the first-ever cryptocurrency has spent the last six months in, has been broken out of with the latest rally, following an inverse head and shoulders bottom forming at $6,500.

But before bulls should go on their victory march, they need to beware of bears that may still be in control. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could fall back into the downtrend, causing it to break down further to the final low before things finally turn around once again.

Repeat of Bitcoin Bear Market Could Send Crypto Asset to New Lows

Markets are cyclical, and often behave similar across multiple timeframes, and certain formations and setups regularly repeat. This is due to markets being driven by the emotional and psychological state of investors participating within the market, which rarely ever changes.

There are enough comparisons between the 2018 Bitcoin bear market and the current downtrend, that many are referring to 2019’s rally and subsequent selloff as an “echo bubble.”

Related Reading | Psychology of a Market Cycle: Are Bitcoin Investors In Denial? 

However, these comparisons can be extremely helpful for traders and analysts seeking an edge in predicting future price movements.

During the last cycle, Bitcoin began forming a bottom pattern – a massive inverse head and shoulders chart formation – throughout June and July of 2018. After the pattern was confirmed with a strong rally, the cryptocurrency was stopped at yet another lower high at $8,500. However, this pump was enough to cause Bitcoin to break up and out of downtrend resistance.

But unfortunately, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap couldn’t hold at such high prices, and ultimately fell back down toward the low $6,000 range. Bitcoin spent a few weeks there, then plummeted in November 2018 to the final bear market low of $3,100.

https://twitter.com/cryptobombshell/status/1217096909871091713

Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has broken through its recent downtrend once again, after an inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern confirmed, causing the price of the asset to rally – just as it did in 2018.

If the same price action follows the last time this same setup occurred, Bitcoin price will fall from here back down to lows around $6,000, before eventually breaking down lower, falling to the 200-week moving average, and resuming its secular bull market, potentially reaching prices of $100,000 to one million dollars per BTC.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Is Fearfully Following Former Bear Market Fractal, New Lows Possible 

Such price action would suggest the current breakout is a false breakout, and that bears are letting bull get confident and conformable before the selling takes them by surprise. Although bulls would be wise to beware, this time could be different, and bulls may have already gotten the best of bearish Bitcoin traders, putting an end to the downtrend for good.

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Tony "The Bull" Severino
Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Read more

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.

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Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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