Analysts Lays This Case for 60% Drop In Bitcoin Price By 2020’s Halving

Nick Chong

1 year ago

3 mins read

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After Bitcoin (BTC) rocketed from $3,000 to $14,000 in the span of six months, analysts have been sure that the cryptocurrency would never revisit the $3,000s again. Indeed, the logarithmic price curve that has contained the asset’s price action for the past decade predicts BTC will never again hit $3,000.

But, there have been a few analyses projecting that it may only be a matter of time before such low levels are visited once again. And one of these recently gained some steam on Crypto Twitter.

Could Bitcoin Revisit $3,000s By Halving? Analyst Fears So

For some reason or another, so-called fractal analysis has gained much traction in the cryptocurrency space. This sees analysts overlay historical price action over current charts to try and predict what’s next.

These analyses have worked well on multiple occasions. For instance, a fractal analyst from trader NebraskanGooner predicted Bitcoin’s decline from the $9,000s late last year to the $6,000s, then the latest recovery back to the $8,000s. This same fractal suggests a price drop will soon occur.

Another fractal suggests the same.

This fractal is one from cryptocurrency trader Haejin. They noted that Bitcoin’s price action since the $14,000 top in June is eerily reminiscent of that seen in the 2018 bear market, with both cycles seeing a downward price channel, an upward wedge-formed false breakout, declining volume, and signs of capitulation.

Haejin then noted that if BTC follows the exact path it did in 2018, the price will soon collapse back to the $6,000s, then Bitcoin will capitulate in March or April to fall as low as $3,300 by the time of the halving.

https://t.co/JhMTlE2zA1: Bitcoin Deja vu?

Here is a Members only chart: Note the Inverse H&S on both fractals.

Also the three wave ABC price constructs
The downward price channel
The upward wedge
Declining volumes
Potential Capitulation Volume

All within 4 months? Hmmm. pic.twitter.com/hXNN53PI7B

— Haejin (@Haejin_Crypto) January 17, 2020

History Begs to Differ

While this scary fractal says that Bitcoin will be back at the multi-year lows by the time of the halving in the middle of May, some say the opposite will take place. In fact, an analyst who called Bitcoin’s rally into the $8,000s when BTC was trading in the low-$7,000s at the start of January, said that the leading cryptocurrency could be at its previous all-time high just a month after the block reward reduction.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, prominent Bitcoin analyst Financial Survivalism released an extensive analysis on TradingView earlier this month that indicated BTC could hit $20,000 by July 1st, 2020, just six months away.

Check out this post on @tradingview to learn why I think $BTC will retest all time highs by July 1, 2020. 🚀https://t.co/IK87UVVpmf

— Tyler Coates (@Sawcruhteez) January 9, 2020

Not to mention, simple historical price action analysis suggests there is about no way that Bitcoin will fall in any dramatic fashion as the halving nears.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, the four months before the halving to the event itself have been extremely bullish for Bitcoin in 2012 and in 2016, with BTC rallying higher into these events, gaining steam as investors try and front-run this shock to the emission dynamics of BTC.

Nick Chong

I am a writer who has been following Bitcoin for years now. My insights and interviews have been featured in leading publications in the industry such as LongHash and Decrypt. I own a small amount of Bitcoin.