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Bitcoin (BTC) and the aggregated cryptocurrency market have been moving in tandem with the global markets throughout the past couple of weeks, which has made the nascent asset class subjected to significant selling pressure.
This close correlation has led many analysts and investors to deem the cryptocurrency’s classification as a safe-haven asset as nullified.
In spite of this, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency has significantly outperformed the traditional markets over a multi-month period, leading some analysts to be “surprised” at how well it has performed despite the significant turbulence in the global markets.
Bitcoin Forms Short-Term Correlation with Global Markets, Making it Prone to Further Downside
Bitcoin has been closely tracking the major U.S. stock indices over the past few weeks, with their massive decent coming about in tandem with BTC’s decline from recent highs of $10,500.
This correlation has become even more transparent today, with Bitcoin plummeting roughly 7% from daily highs of $8,800 to lows of $7,700, which has come concurrently with the 6% selloff seen by the Dow Jones and other benchmark indices.
Jonny Moe, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, recently offered a chart showing Bitcoin’s price action laid on top of that of S&P 500 futures, elucidating the striking correlation seen in recent times.
“BTC shown overlaid with SPX futures ES over the last month. Tell me more about this lack of correlation,” he noted while pointing to the chart seen below.
$BTC shown overlaid with $SPX futures $ES over the last month.
Tell me more about this lack of correlation. pic.twitter.com/R0fALpX25T
— Jonny Moe (@JonnyMoeTrades) March 9, 2020
Although Bitcoin isn’t fundamentally correlated with the traditional markets or the global economy, its status as a “risk-on” asset leads investors to remove capital from the crypto when they perceive risk in other markets.
BTC Still Showing Signs of Strength Over a Multi-Month Time Frame
Although Bitcoin has shown some signs of weakness today as the global markets face an intense selloff, it is important to note that it is still outperforming the equities markets on a year-to-date time frame.
Ari Paul, a managing partner at BlockTower Capital, spoke about BTC’s bullish price action seen throughout 2020 in a recent tweet, noting that while equities are down 15% or more from where they started the year, Bitcoin is still up over 7%.
“BTC isn’t a safe haven (yet). I’ve always predicted it would decline with a big equity sell off. Frankly, I’m very surprised at how well it’s held up. BTC up 7%+ on the year with equities down ~15%. We’ll have to see what happens, but darn good performance for a risky asset.”
BTC isn't a safe haven (yet). I've always predicted it would decline with a big equity sell off. Frankly, I'm very surprised at how well it's held up. BTC up 7%+ on the year with equities down ~15%. We'll have to see what happens, but darn good performance for a risky asset.
— Ari Paul (@AriDavidPaul) March 9, 2020
Although the benchmark cryptocurrency’s close correlation to the traditional markets over the past few weeks has been striking, it is important to keep in mind that it is still outperforming more traditional asset classes, which is a trend that could continue strong for the weeks and months ahead.
Featured image from Shutterstock.
