This Crucial Volume Analysis Hints At Extended Bitcoin Bear Market

Tony "The Bull" Severino

5 years ago

3 mins read

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

With Bitcoin’s halving now behind us, the bull market is supposed to be ready to start.

But the volume profile of the recent rally may have bearish implications that could hint at Bitcoin falling back into an extended bear market.

Bitcoin Halving Rally Volume Profile May Have Bearish Implications

Volume precedes price. It’s a common phrase known throughout traditional markets, but may not be as familiar to Bitcoin traders.

The idea behind the idiom is that smart money often takes positions early, which aren’t always reflected in price movements. Instead, trading volume can provide an early signal that something more is taking place.

Volume is also an important factor when considering if chart pattern is valid or not. Oftentimes, particular volume profiles match specific chart patterns.

Trading volume even confirms when breakouts are real. When formations break on low-volume, the move is often a trap, and price moves in the opposite direction soon after.

And that volume appears due to a surge in buying and selling that takes place when limit orders are filled and stop losses are hit all at once.

The volume profile across the latest Bitcoin halving rally from under $3,800 to over $10,000, has been decreasing throughout.

https://twitter.com/juni0rlancaster/status/1260222512312573954?s=21

Could Crypto See Another Three Years of Bear Market?

According to volume analysis of various markets, volume decreasing while prices rise, are a bearish signal.

Even worse for the fate of Bitcoin, the volume profile and price rise more closely resemble the price action just before Bitcoin price fell off a cliff in mid-2014.

This was long before the final bear market bottom was put in.

The volume pattern indicates that Bitcoin is at risk of another fall, and potentially, an even longer bear market.

Bitcoin price closed last month as a bullish engulfing candle, and Bitcoin’s halving is here. A bull market is expected to begin as a result.

But a renowned chart pattern expert claim that downtrends often continue after such candles are formed in a bear market.

Further putting Bitcoin price on thin ice, is the fact that even the largest crypto supporters are expecting a devastating drop now that the halving has passed, due to inefficient miners capitulating now that the cost of production has doubled.

If miners to capitulate, it could push Bitcoin even lower to its final bottom and set back the chances for any new bull run even longer.

After the crash in 2014 that matches the current volume profile, Bitcoin price took nearly another three years to reach its former all-time high.

Experts are already pointing to over a hundred days before Bitcoin breaks over $10,000. Could it really take another three years of bear market before we see $20,000 BTC again?

Tony "The Bull" Severino

Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is a distinguished figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sector, renowned for his in-depth technical expertise and innovative approach to market trends. As the Head of Research at NewsBTC, Tony leads a team dedicated to providing cutting-edge insights and forecasts, helping both novice and experienced traders navigate the complexities of the crypto market.
A seasoned Chartered Market Technician, Tony's prowess in identifying and capitalizing on market patterns is unmatched. His academic and professional journey in market analysis has firmly established him as a leading authority in technical trading strategies. Tony’s approach is heavily influenced by the principles of Elliott Wave Theory, a method known for its rigorous assessment of investor psychology and price movements.

Beyond his role at NewsBTC, Tony is the visionary founder of CoinChartist.io, an educational platform aimed at demystifying the nuances of cryptocurrency trading. CoinChartist.io serves as a valuable resource for traders seeking to enhance their technical analysis skills. The platform offers a range of learning tools and resources designed to empower traders with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.

In addition to his educational initiatives, Tony is a prolific author and a dominant voice in the crypto community. He writes the CoinChartist VIP newsletter, a weekly dispatch that has become a staple among crypto enthusiasts, revered for its insightful analysis and actionable trading advice. This newsletter has consistently ranked as a best-seller on SubStack, boasting thousands of subscribers who rely on Tony’s expertise to guide their trading strategies.

Tony is also celebrated for his literary contributions to the field. He is the author of the highest-rated Crypto Trading Journal on Amazon.com, a testament to his ability to communicate complex trading concepts in an accessible manner. This journal is widely regarded as an essential tool for traders aiming to track their progress and refine their strategies.

Before his ascent in the financial analysis world, Tony honed his skills in journalism. His background in this field has endowed him with a unique ability to present intricate market dynamics in a clear and compelling manner, making his insights highly sought after by a broad audience that ranges from casual readers to professional traders.
His professional affiliations underscore his commitment to excellence and continuous learning. As a partner of Elliott Wave International and TradingView, Tony collaborates with other leading experts to enhance his knowledge and skills. His active membership in the CMT Association further aligns him with the highest standards of industry practices and ethics.

Tony’s nickname, "The Bull," aptly reflects his aggressive and optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency markets. His forecasts often anticipate significant upturns, earning him a reputation for bullish predictions that have frequently led to lucrative outcomes for those who follow his advice.

In summary, Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, is more than just a technical analyst; he is a mentor, educator, and innovator whose influence in the cryptocurrency space continues to grow. His dedication to advancing the understanding of market forces and his commitment to providing high-quality, reliable analysis make him a pivotal figure in the world of cryptocurrency trading.